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A reductive trick I have trouble imagining a suitable audience for.

It's not a trick at all, though it might seem so if you're not familiar with the concept of conditional probabilities. And it's hard to imagine a more suitable audience than Hacker News.

But it sounds to me like, for you, the unfettered freedom to use recreational drugs is an inherent good, and that you don't think it should be discouraged even if can be shown to lead to increased homelessness.

Sure it is. You didn't actually say anything substantial, you only described the structure of a hypothetical argument to substitute for having one.

The straw person you've now added fills a similar function. You're clearly in search of rhetorical positions that lets you keep repeating yourself without taking the risk of participating in rational discourse.

How common is it that wealthy people become homeless because they recreationally consume wine? Is the prevalence the same as for other groups?

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