A Bear Case: My Predictions Regarding AI Progress

This is basically my current heuristic around AI progress:

"If LLMs were actually as powerful as they're hyped up to be, there wouldn't be the need for all of these attempts at handholding."

There was a recent thing where Pieter Levels said he Vibe Coded his own multiplayer Flight Sim, and it seems amazing, and I believe him, and yet of course, Pieter Levels is one of the most successful indie developers of all time, like he is literally the guy you would expect to be best at something like this.