Economic and Market Data Signal a Recession Is Coming
forbes.com
forbes.com
They've been pretty insistent over the last 5 years that a recession was coming any time now. It took a solidly competent administration to prevent the seemingly inevitable. We now have a new administration.
"Big U.S. Banks Are Preparing For An Impending Recession By Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Senior Contributor"
2020...
"Shutting down economy creates risk of causing depression"
>“I think it will be closer to a depression than a regular recession,” said Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, a managing principal at the financial consulting and research firm MRV Associates.
2020...
"Corporate Defaults This Year Are Likely To Surpass The Mountain Of Great Recession Defaults By Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Senior Contributor."
>Increasing evidence from credit markets is showing, that as I wrote in March, this recession will be worse than the 2007-2009 Great Recession
2019...
"Economy teetering on edge of recession as rates fall, analysts warn"
>“Another interest rate cut in the US, coupled with very low and in some cases negative rates in Europe will adversely impact US banks,” said Mayra Rodriguez Valladares at MRV Associates.”
Uh. That recession happened. Unemployment hit 14.7%. GDP was down 19.2%. We printed $5 trillion to get out of it.
"More Than 30 U.S. States Don't Have Enough Cash To Pay Their Bills By Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Senior Contributor"
>This news is worrisome, especially in a rising inflationary environment and one in which some economic indicators show us close to, or even in, a recession.
2022...
"As The Fed Fights A 40-Year Inflation High, Investors Must Remain Vigilant By Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Senior Contributor"
>Current inflation will cause both consumers and companies to reduce their spending, which unfortunately, will lead to a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP). If a significant recession arises, that too will push company stock prices down.
2022...
"High Interest Rates Will Continue To Challenge Most Sectors Of The Economy By Mayra Rodriguez Valladares, Senior Contributor"
>While raising rates may be necessary to temper inflation, rising costs of borrowing for individuals and companies is likely to get us into a recession or close to it in 2023.
Admittedly, one would have had to been blind not to see the 2020 recession coming. Whether it would have been a full blown depression absent stimulus is an open question - though it was the deepest recession since the Great Depression and other countries took much longer to pull themselves out of it.
Of course, I think you'd have to be blind not to see the potential for a tighter economy now, assuming things continue the way they're going. We've certainly started cutting back on spending due to the chaos.
And of course I must also say that the landing never occurred so we can't say that it was soft. We are not yet back to 2% inflation
Is the model and I don't think they update it in real time. Of course the model is also not very accurate so take it with a grain of salt