Ukraine Will Fight On, with or Without the West | Hacker News Reader

Ukraine Will Fight On, with or Without the West

reason.com

16 pointsBostonian7 comments

I like the sentiment, and I believe that the Ukrainians will fight on regardless, but I am extremely pessimistic about their prospects past the end of this year. US support has been critical from the very earliest stages of this war and indeed even before the invasion of Feb '22. The Rivet Joint flights, HIMARS, Patriot batteries, Starlink access, cyber defense and intel support... I am not a defense expert but to my understanding there is no way that the EU/NATO-minus-US can fill the gap for these programs. Without them the Ukrainian strategic and tactical options are much more limited and they are forced to confront vastly reduced expectations from what only a short time ago was an already not great situation but one that held a chance of rewarding their tenacity.

And all that is just assuming that the US merely withdraws support; I would not be at all surprised if this administration begins pointing US cyber ops and the intel pipeline in the opposite direction and gives Russia a much clearer picture into their targets in Ukraine. In any other era this would be an unthinkable betrayal but now it seems far more likely than not.

Just a note. Ukranian manufacturing has really stepped up. They are making 80% of the ammunition now.

They also have a well trained army still alive while the Russians have only conscripts with weeks of training.

Russia manufacturing is diminishing daily.

I'm not sure Russia will have any bullets left by the end of the year. And north Korean reinforcements were such a bust, they were all slaughtered.

The main worry is if the US starts buying Russian oil, but that won't be an issue if Russia can't move anything.

>Russia manufacturing is diminishing daily. I'm not sure Russia will have any bullets left by the end of the year.

You have this information from where?

> You have this information from where?

From the "free press". This mantra continues since 3 years.

That is complete nonsense. The idea that one of the poorist countries in Europe has greater capacity for manufacturing ammunition than Russia is just silly

Why is it so difficult to believe that a country that has received tons of western aid has managed to increase it's capacity, while Russia has been living with large sanctions hasn't been able to keep up?

Russia is depending on ammunition from North Korea to stay competitive...

I agree the Ukrainian defense industrial base is working miracles given the situation, but my comment was specifically about major assets that not only they but the EU as a whole are not prepared to replace at this time or in the near term. Big-ticket items, not drones, cannon shells or bullets. In some cases there is a similar capability in or perhaps available to Europe but not (yet) the capacity for mass manufacture. In other cases there is nothing else even close. It's just a very very bad situation. I am currently pinning my hopes on Trump getting a lot of pushback from the US defense industry, but this seems like a slim chance as they probably expect they'll be making a lot of money in the next several years regardless of where their products are shipped.

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