The End of Weather Forecasting
thinc.blog
thinc.blog
They said exactly what was going to happen, all pre-planned, and anyone is surprised that it is happening?
To be clear - FUCK Project 2025 and especially FUCK anyone messing with NOAA/NWS.
And if you think I'm exaggerating:
"Focus the NWS on Commercial Operations. Each day, Americans rely on weather forecasts and warnings provided by local radio stations and colleges that are produced not by the NWS, but by private companies such as AccuWeather. Studies have found that the forecasts and warnings provided by the private companies are more reliable than those provided by the NWS."
[0] https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHA...
"Break Up NOAA"
https://www.accuweather.com/en/press/accuweather-does-not-su...
This is not a statement of support, it's a fucking ad. There's no actual "vehemently objecting" - in fact, between the lines, it basically says they don't think disbanding NOAA (as per Project 2025) is necessary - just cutting down to bare minimum will suffice.
You're right that it doesn't read like they care as much about the public's ability to be directly able to access that data; They're just aware that if the taxpayer is funding it, they're going to be demanding some sort of access, and since a lot of that raw data still needs to be 'digested' to make sense to the average person, it's not a big deal if the raw data is publicly available. And anyone that tries to also commercialize it to compete can be crushed by their Superior Accuracy(tm).
I wasn't someone who believed their denials, but yes, some people will be surprised by this.
They probably won't believe it's happening even while it's happening.
Then they do it. And again and again. While being awarded excessive amount of benefit of doubt again and again.
Even now, when I read news, they euphemism and undersell.
Preventable and predictable nightmares.
- He is one year in (Donald just began so his fans are still in the honeymoon phase) and still "trickle down" is not working. He did get inflation to go down, but in a way similar to how bleeding out to death also lowers your blood pressure. Argentina needed a Corpus callosotomy, but got The Simpsons Dr Nick for the operation.
- The sheer power of being the USA president is orders of magnitude bigger than being Argentina's president. Argentina depends on fresh money to pay its debts, debt rollover, etc. Also, Argentinians are one of the biggest USD cash hoarders in the world due to currency trauma so we directly depend on what the USA does. no kidding.
- I have NO IDEA how the legislative elections of 2025 or the presidentials of 2027 are going to go. Trying to predict how Argentina will be in 6 months is harder than predicting Norway's next 50 years. Does he have a chance? Of course. The longer he can keep the ARS/USD stable the longer he will be in power. In the worst case it could take ten years, like last time https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Carlos_Menem
> How much damage does it take before the pendulum swings back?
oof. Menem's period was followed by one of the most pathetic presidents our country has seen, which ended in this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_gr...
I really, really hope someone stops Donald from doing something irreversible. If that is even possible anymore.
Lol. So, I don't know how I should read this. In some sense I agree with you. Did you initially agree with Macri? I was living in Argentina when he was elected, and my Argentine friends lost their minds. Privately, I was not a fan of his socially reactionary rhetoric... he seemed like a version of George W Bush. But I thought that his plan to float the currency and end the blue dollar was the only thing that made any sense, given the ridiculousness of the economy - even my communist friends who were protesting at his election had more USD under their mattresses than ARS in a bank (most worked for the government, and got the preferable exchange rate, after all). Macri did seem to control inflation for a little while, without completely taking a chainsaw to the state. The IMF was initially pleased. Does something like that seem... palatable now?
In 1976 Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge regime committed mass atrocities against the entire educated population, setting that country back by centuries. Similarly, Stalin's purges from about 1937 on focused on eliminating engineers, scientists, and doctors.
Science is a threat to weak minds because, when all said and done science is about truth. Those who are seizing power in the West now loathe and detest truth. Truth has the potential to empower people.
I do not expect Trump/Musk regime to stop at public science. All those private companies who thik they are going to be 'winners' have a very rude shock coming. Any capable, educated minds left will be pivotal to the survival of democracy in coming years.
For example, a massive part of California's economy is in farming, and while most farmers are more conservative leaning, I am sure a vindictive admin will have no qualms with sacrificing them to stick it to California. Similarly with Oregon and Washington. And when prices of food go up commensurately in those states, they will spin it as "look at how shitty those places are, look at how much they charge you for food."
Or they will give discounts to large farmers while lowering data quality and increasing prices for the small ones, impoverishing or causing them to fail, such that they can be cheaply bought out, thus further consolidating the ag sector into a small handful of massive companies.
Another secondary effect that is worrying to me is in regards to how much aviation relies on weather data. Commercial aviation probably won't suffer much immediately -- they'll pay for the good data and pass on the costs to their passengers. With how much prices for airline flights already fluctuate, the difference will probably get lost in the noise so there won't be much public outrage. But GA pilots, especially ones operating from smaller airports might be affected pretty significantly. Flying a plane isn't exactly a cheap endeavor as is, and having to pay much more for weather data to fly safely might turn even more people off from flying. Down the line, that means less pilots that can fly commercial, which leads to yet another pilot shortage. It will also probably mean more GA accidents due to insufficient or shoddy weather data.
Pilots rely not just on forecasts, but also warnings like turbulence, icing, thunderstorms, low visibility, etc. Without precision, and relying on other sources will cause a higher risk of encountering unexpected weather. It will increase costs, as they'll have to subscribe to alternative weather services, emergency responses will be affected as well. Need a helicopter to medevac someone? Well, better hope they updated their weather subscription, and that it covers the area you need to be evcuated from and to. It'll also increase delays due to the adverse weather events encountered unexpectedly.
Oh man, the irony of the "Department of Efficiency" closing down a branch that was made specifically to make the system more efficient
Fine, save short term costs. Fine, expand the private weather marketplace in America. Ok, so explain to non giant agribusiness US domestic farmers why they now pay for what was a free/low cost service. They vote more by numbers than the corporates do. So you've alienated your base for what?
Tornado season may be interesting or another beast from the east, or reduced air flight reliability.
(I'm not having high hopes for EU to move on this fast enough to achieve anything, but who knows.)
Little by little, the US is relinquishing the economical and political power it holds over the world. Which is worrying, as it increases the risk of a nuclear war.
The word climate probably caused the problem. They should have stuck to weather. Maybe they can call themselves "the weathermen" and move underground?
So the 'extraterritorial' nature of decisions to cut back on weather and climate services has reach beyond the borders.
I continue to think this is a GSA accounting stuffup and the occupied offices will be restored, or relocated because the necessity of a NOAA seems hard to contest. No, the private sector does not replicate. it complements and augments.
It's quite strange why Americans tolerate that an unelected, and even unappointed foreigner would destroy their country piece by piece. Isn't that exactly what the much-touted second amendment was designed to prevent?
Edit: YCombinator "AI Startup School" [0] used to present the list of speakers, and Musk was the first one on that list. Now there's no list anymore. It would be interesting to know if it means he's not coming, or if YC isn't comfortable with publishing their choices.
[0] https://events.ycombinator.com/ai-sus
Original text on that page was: YC is throwing our first-ever AI startup school in San Francisco on June 16 and 17th.\n\nAI Startup School will gather 2000 of the top CS seniors, masters, and PhD candidates in AI to hear from speakers including Elon Musk, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Andrej Karpathy, Andrew Ng and many more
The guy is certainly unelected but he's a citizen of the US who happened to be born overseas. When do you believe someone stop being a foreigner?
IIANM, the second amendment is motivated by the interest of maintaining a militia, mostly against invasion attempts like the British one in the US war of independence.
The historical record is actually very clear on this: the second amendment was designed to prevent the United States from establishing a standing army.
Re foreigner: Would it be ok if he pays $5M for the gilded citizenship or should the job be given to a citizen? Would that make it ok?
They literally voted for this nonsense. Trump won by an undeniable landslide. His previous administration, campaign, and his constant stream of consciousness on X provides all you need to know about his plans, ambitions, intentions, etc. He's not doing a bait and switch here; quite the opposite. So, people can't really claim ignorance. Or that this isn't exactly what they voted for.
As for all the outragism, end of world nonsense, and general level of panic visible among (mostly) the minority of people that didn't vote for this, I don't think it's that helpful, constructive, or persuasive. This constant level of "OMG we're all going to die!!!! Boooohoooohoooo!" is just endless variants of the boy who cried wolf. It's having the opposite effect of training people into learning that this is all fine. Who even listens to that stuff anymore? Probably not a majority of voters. That's how we ended up with this situation.
And given that there are mid term elections coming up November next year, now would be a good time to come up with a better plan than just handing that on a silver platter to Trump. Again. There's a sense of urgency that is a bit missing here. Democrats are in full on panic & headless chicken mode currently. That's worrying.
There's a real possibility to win back the house and senate for Democrats. But that will only mean something if those two institutions can live up to their constitutional responsibilities and not be deadlocked into inaction; like they have been for the last half century or so.
Is there a plan beyond just trying to restore the status quo that lead to all this? That doesn't sound like a very good plan to me. Why should people vote for that? If there is a plan, can somebody please articulate what it is? All this reactive outragism is wearing people out.
I'm btw. a European moderate (in case you thought otherwise); I don't vote for populists. And I have no vote in this. I do have a stake in the outcome. All this nonsense is threatening to throw the world into big recessions, war and chaos. So, I am kind of grumpy with you people in the US. Get your shit together please. This is embarrassing.
Given that Trump is demolishing federal institutions currently, what's the plan for rebuilding those? Raise a lot of taxes and rehire everyone? Might not go down that well with voters. Restore it exactly as it was in all its gridlocked and dysfunctional ways? Same thing. That's not a plan. It's not even the beginning of a plan. I get that people are upset and emotional about this. But, reality check: it's happening. So, what's the plan forward from that? Simple question. I'm not aware of a coherent debate about any of that.
My recommendation would be dealing with the shit that's raining down currently. Accept that federal institutions will have been downsized by the time power reverts to the Democrats. Given that, how do can they make it better? What's their vision for getting things back on the rails? I don't think a reset at the federal level is necessarily that bad even. This seems to be a bit of a taboo topic with democrats. Because it involves admitting that things maybe weren't that perfect. It's easier to whine about how bad things are than it is to suggest concrete alternatives.
But what Trump made clear is that rational reasonable plans are not a path anywhere.
As someone who actually lives here, I think it is very appropriate to freak out a bit and want to put a stop to this. It’s very easy to destroy, but extremely difficult to build back. I like the post office, national parks, and the national weather service and would like to keep them as is, thank you very much.
Your attitude, shared by centrists in the US, is why we are in this current situation. Might I suggest you worry more about the AfD and less about US politics?
Further, Trump spent a huge amount of his campaign denying any association with project 2025. I also don’t recall any moment where he said he would turn over control of the government to Elon Fucking Musk.
Something about the US makes its voting behavior resemble the uniform distribution.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presid...
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/03/doge-noaa-weather-building-...
Project 2025 linked in the current top comment here https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_CHA... says
"NOAA consists of six main offices: [list here]
Together, these form a colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry and, as such, is harmful to future U.S. prosperity. This industry’s mission emphasis on prediction and management seems designed around the fatal conceit of planning for the unplannable. That is not to say NOAA is useless, but its current organization corrupts its useful functions. It should be broken up and downsized."
Blogspam
Doge seeks to cancel lease on key NOAA computing facility
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43248492
Other discussions:
The American Weather Forecast Is in Trouble
Its about privatization.
Americans should read up on what happened with Thames Water in the UK.
I mean, given how he went 180 on everything almost instantly, that's one of the most plausible explanations.
With the usual caveats:
1. I'm not a qualified psychiatrist
2. You could tell that without me saying so, because qualified psychiatrists know better than to diagnose people from public behaviours alone
3. Even private interviews for diagnosis are not perfectly reliable
4. Gell-Mann amnesia effect on public reporting
This platform is linked directly with one of the worst of them (Thiel) so I won't expect this post or my account to survive much long, but I don't care anyway.
And the work will eventually be outsourced to IBM who are working on forecasting AI models.
Could be worse, I guess, it could end up farmed out to Oracle ...
"examples of privatisation increasing costs to us taxpayers" ..
* First up, the entire US health system compared per capita to other industrialised countries.
* Any reasoned debate on whether privatization serves the public interest will include substantial links to wins and losses on either side, the classic preamble quote being something like:
there are flaws endemic in both private and public ownership: private ownership is not free of its own set of problems. In short, public provision suffers when public managers pursue actions that are not in the interests of the citizenry—for example, the employment of unnecessary workers or the payment of exorbitant wages. Private provision suffers when private managers take action inconsistent with the public interest—for example, performing shoddy work in an effort to boost profits or denying service when costs are unexpectedly high.
( ~ https://hbr.org/1991/11/does-privatization-serve-the-public-... )Your blanket denial is in error.
> Based on your logic capitalism ...
Not my logic, there are examples of PE companies rorting public sector funds post privatisation from around the globe .. that's public, global, empirical observation not random forum "logic".
Then there's the hilarious question of "capitalism" .. do they have that still in the US?
I commend you on your nom de guerre, using the pet name of Elon's dildo to reply here is pure genius. Chef's kiss.