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Comment by aurareturn | Hacker News Reader

  I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs.

I think the Ukraine situation already signaled that to Taiwan.

Ultimately, China won't invade as long as Taiwan plays its cards right. China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a single shot and then quickly re-integrate Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn't do anything to provoke China like inviting Nancy Pelosi or voting in more pro-independence politicians.

I actually think these events decreases the chance of a Chinese invasion but increases the chance of a peaceful reunification because the Taiwanese government will look to rely less on the US and positive impression of the US is decreasing in Taiwan.

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> China wants to retake Taiwan

Take. They can’t “retake” something they never had.

The island of Taiwan belonged to China at some point. No political statement needed and no need to rewrite history on HN comments.

  Historically, Taiwan was governed by Chinese administrations for a significant period. In 1683, after defeating the Ming loyalists in Taiwan, the Qing dynasty extended its rule over the island, eventually incorporating it as part of its empire. By 1887, Taiwan was officially designated a province of China under Qing rule. However, following the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Taiwan was placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China. Today, its status remains politically and historically complex, with ongoing debates over sovereignty.

Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China then — and has continued to rule Taiwan since before the revolution led by the CCP. That’s why their official name is the “Republic of China”.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_China_(1912%E2%80%...

The CCP never controlled Taiwan: it remained independent and under the previous regime. So the CCP would need to take Taiwan as their regime never controlled it.

You’re the one rewriting history.

> Taiwan is under the administration of the government which ruled China

Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China.

The distinction between take/retake in this scenario is a shallow attempt to peacock your political opinion for everyone to see.

> Both consider themselves the temporarily embarrassed rightful heir to the centuries old concept of China.

This is an outdated take that does not reflect the contemporary feelings of the Taiwanese people and at best only describes a facet of KMT party policy. Bear in mind the KMT does not hold a majority in the legislature - they had to form a coalition with a third party to do so - and the president is from the DPP, which explicitly considers Taiwan a sovereign nation and does not buy into the notion that Taiwan is secretly the real China.

So is the insistence on “retake”.

With the exception that “take” is technically correct, as the area in question is a remnant of the already existing government which has maintained independence in a cease fire. Both claim the other, but facts still matter. You don’t “retake” an area that was never under your control.

The RoC lost mainland China to the CCP, but the CCP was never the owner of Taiwan.

>but the CCP was never the owner of Taiwan.

I think his perspective is: "If the Qing were the Chinese Goverment and they had Taiwan, and the CCP is the Chinese Government does not have Taiwan, so they will be retaking the island".

His conviction speaks to the strength of the CCP narrative that they ARE China though.

CCP/PRC =! "China". It's a dynasty of China, one of many. Americans aren't generally familiar with the concept of dynasties, but the Europeans would be. When I was in France some years ago, I was told that France went through 2 kingdom phases and 5 republics in it's history, with the current iteration being the 5th Republic of France. The 5th Republic never owned a colony in what's now the US, but some previous iteration of "France" did, until they sold it to the US in the famous "Louisiana purchase". Thus, it is correct to say that "France" used to owned parts of what's now the US. Likewise, it is correct to say that "China" used to own Taiwan", even though the PRC/CCP never did.

Most MSM stories on Taiwan take pains to point out the PRC/CCP have never controlled Taiwan. That is technically correct but intentionally misleading, counting on the (mostly American) readers to not understand the difference between a government/dynasty/regime of a country and the country itself, which has histories extending back beyond the founding of its current regime.

The current demand of China to Taiwan, is that Taiwan must continue to claim itself as a rival regime to the PRC vying to control, and represent, all of China. What will trigger war is formal Taiwan "independence", defined as Taiwan rescinding claims on PRC territories and declaring itself a sovereign country independent from not just the PRC, but the ROC (Republic of China) or any other concept of "China" altogether

For 200 years China did nothing with Taiwan. The Ming dynasty called it a ball of mud in the water not worth the effort of the Chinese people. The Qing dynasty did not allow anyone to travel to Taiwan because it was too unsafe to travel. The few people in Taiwan were constantly fighting with the local population. They failed to rule or control Taiwan. For 7 years prior to Japan invading they decided to call it a province. Despite having no control over it. Japan even said they were not convinced Taiwan belonged to China because there was next to nothing there, they put up no fight, and fled before Japan arrived. The PRC also called Taiwan an independent nation and advocated for Taiwan independence until the 1940s when the ROC took control of the island as the request of the allied forces who requested ROC administer Taiwan until they decided what to do with the island, because no one was convinced it ever belonged to China to begin with.

I believe allowing China to seize Philippine islands without response was actually the appeasement which escalated the situation. (Along with raiding oil fields, etc of their other neighbors.)

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