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Comment by _ea1k | Hacker News Reader

I doubt total sales have peaked. Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up.

But EVs are eating enough market share that combustion cars are likely never climbing past their peak again.

Not everyone drives. If population growth is mostly in places where people bike/ebike/walk/train, then your assumption doesn’t hold.

When those people get richer they'll want to drive. We see this all over the developing world. The growth might be less than the growth in mass transit but as populations become richer they become more mobile so the absolute demand will likely increase.

When I got richer, that meant I could afford to move somewhere I wouldn't have to drive all the time. Life is more pleasant here in the "15-minute city".

> Economic growth and population growth will likely keep that going up.

What population growth?

About 70 million per year at the moment. Current estimates have world population peaking in 2080.

Certainly not all estimates, right? We can certainly suppose different scenarios, with a large specter from humanity total disappearance to discovery of star gates technology opening plenty of inhabitable world without any actual alien threat existing in the outerspace. Also there can be wide gap in evolution from one government influence zone to an other, even at very small region scale — think Haiti and The Dominican Republic.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/07/1151971

not necessarily, people in dense urban areas rely on other transportations at least in EU

EU is a tiny portion of the global population (as is America)

But you’re right, increasing urbanisation globally leads to more public transport which offsets countries getting richer.

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