He is calling for a blow off top followed by a deflationary bust fwiw.
He is calling for a blow off top followed by a deflationary bust fwiw.
Unfortunately these kind of predictions are impossible to trust, even if the predictor is known to make good calls. Michael Bury called the 2008 financial crisis and made a killing off of it. Since then he’s been periodically predicting a water-scarcity-driven recession, deleting and undeleting his twitter every couple of years. It never happens. Even the best economist can’t predict the timing of these things. If somebody believes they _can_, that just makes me suspect that they’re not wise enough to know they can’t predict it, and probably aren’t very skilled. Or maybe they’ll be the first to get it right — but how could I confirm that, without blind faith?
For example Trump and tarrifs have nothing to do with his forecast whatsoever. It's a long term macro forecast that trumps presidents etc.