Comment by jbm | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jbm | Hacker News Reader

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I don't think Trump will bring peace to Ukraine and he seems to be operating on an "America-First, forget about Europe" policy.

However, if by "genociding Ukrainian people" you mean eradicating the population of Ukraine that considers itself distinct from Russia, Trump could conceivably stop the war by letting Russia hold onto territories it owns, while having the rest of Ukraine as a protectorate of various European powers that may eventually bring it into the EU.

This might result in a populatin exchange as Russian speakers get sent to the Russian-held parts of Ukraine and vice-versa. This would not be good but it would not be a genocide either. You can also look at the Indian partition for an example of how this could go horribly wrong.

That is not a possible outcome.

Russia does not care the slightest about the territory, it is purely a war about ideology and influence.

The only acceptable outcome from a Russian perspective is a Russia aligned government in Kiev, or a peace deal where they will rebuild their army and end up stronger than Ukraine followed by restarting the war.

Problem is I don't think Russia is ever going to agree to to the point of Ukraine becoming a protectorate of the EU without having legal authority to veto EU military intervention in Ukraine. And I severely doubt Ukraine's is going to agree to give up to give up those lands without a security guarantee that Russia can't veto.

Sides, Russia's got nukes. It's nuke's are the whole reason why the US and Europe has been reluctant to intervene. If, in this scenario, Russia invades Ukraine again and then simple say that it will launch it's warheads at any nation that attempts to intervene, what then?

> Trump could conceivably stop the war by letting Russia hold onto territories it owns

So, only ethnically cleanse the areas they already started on. Genocide in a limited and specific way is still genocde.

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