There seem to be at least two kinds of experts. First, there are those who have actually worked as foreign ministers, presidents, chiefs of armed forces, heads of intelligence services, and in other similar positions. Their expertise comes from direct participation in events and first-hand knowledge of how things work. Carl Bildt, Alex Younger, Ben Hodges, Radoslaw Sikorski are people like this.

Then there are the kinds of experts like Mearsheimer and Zeihan, who are little more than avid book readers. They are often wildly off track without understanding it, because they have no real experience to ground them.

The second kind is best avoided.