It seems unlikely that an 8.48% one-day drop in NVDA would be a referendum on how much better GPT 4.5 was than GPT 4.
The stock market could have priced in the model being 10x better, but in the end it turned out to be only 8x better, and we'd see a drop.
Similarly, in a counterfactual, if the stock market had expected the new model to be a regression to 0.5x, but we only saw a 0.9x regression, the stock might go up, despite the model being worse than the predecessor.
Sonnet 3.7 is unbelievable.
It would hardly be shocking though if OpenAI hits a wall. I couldn't get an invite to Friendster, I loved Myspace, I loved Altavista. It is really hard to take the early lead in a marathon and just blow every out of the water the whole race without running out of gas.