Can someone ELI5 the facts & dynamics at play - without taking a side in this topic?
Seems like POTUS feels used / manipulated, but how & why?
Zelensky seems to disagree with some apparent proposed plan, but what is the plan & why does he disagree?
Seems like POTUS feels used / manipulated, but how & why?
Zelensky seems to disagree with some apparent proposed plan, but what is the plan & why does he disagree?
It sounds like this is the sort of reaction that Trump voters might like - both the form and substance. So Trump obliges. The foreign consequences might be of secondary importance to him.
Another possibility is that, we have seen over the past decade or so, illiberal autocrats seem to support and like each other - Orban, Putin, Le Pen in France, now also AfD and Musk. They seem to like the idea of strong leaders such as themselves, carving up the world. This might motivate Trump to side with Putin.
As to the plan: there doesn't really seem to be one, as far as I can tell. Trump implied there's some mineral extraction deal he wanted from Ukraine but unclear how it works. It doesn't promise the one thing Ukraine needs, which is security. Depending on your viewpoint, you might say Trump is extorting mineral rights from Ukraine, or that they want to put some structure on how the mineral wealth will be used to rebuild Ukraine - that's what is discussed at face value. But either way, for any mineral extraction, you need peace, so it's unclear why you would even discuss this while the war is going on.
Russia realized it can keep taking territory if it does so slowly because everyone is afraid of a bigger war and sanctions don't bother the Russian elite that much, so in 2022 they start phase 2 and absorb the additional sanctions.
Trump has a new capitulation deal for Ukraine in hand, possibly pre-approved with Russia, but Zelensky either backed out of accepting the terms or was otherwise surprised about the details and didn't play ball with Trump; possibly because it included him losing a lot of face.
What Trump was offering was to take a chunk of their resources for another temporary peace offer. Which as noted above, will almost certainly be violated in the near term by Russia again. So Ukraine is not only back where they started, but also lost a chunk of their resources. Why would Zelensky agree to that?
US and Russia thought Ukraine was running out of steam, I suppose.
Zelensky refusing this offer is an interesting move. It could, of course, just be for show until next week when he does sign a modified deal.
Yep, but Zelensky/Ukraine needs guarantees that the US will enforce the deal. It's also bs that Trump and crew are putting the lack of peace on Ukraine - literally Russian propaganda talking points.