We're entering an era of decreased globalism, where megacorporation scale actually becomes a danger to society due to reduced warehousing/stockpiling and long extended supply lines, and of course offshored manufacturing that goes with that.
Before solar panels become difficult to purchase, they will become more expensive to purchase.
Mass produced solar panels have been getting both cheaper and easier to get. What you describe could happen, but it's far enough off that we have not seen even the first warning signs yet.
Well, some disagree on there being no warning signs.
Maybe some individual country will have some collapse, but all of human civilization will not.
I.maintain that if you're worried about any of that, you are still better off stockpiling panels now, than developing ways to make your own much worse ones in your backyard.
DIY photovoltaics can be a fun hobby but for someone worried about an actual collapse they can acquire a lifetime supply of solar panels and batteries for less money and time than setting up a custom fab that's able to operate in a collapse situation.
Can you elaborate? I would like to have your confidence ..
And in general setting up a solar panel fab is maybe not the best prepper action, but for the point of distributing critical techologies for a potential reconstruction, I do see the point.
There is individual survival and general progress of the species.
The chances of a nuclear weapon being used somewhere right now tactically I think are quite high. Russia in Ukraine, or Israel in Iran (or someday soon Iran in Israel), or between India and Pakistan. But none of those are sufficient to bring us to a point where home manufacturing of solar panels becomes remotely worthwhile.
It is all interconnected. If one nuke is used, then there will be many on the other side applying pressure to also use a nuke. And so on. I assume much more countries secretly have nukes and the frontlines are somewhat blurry. Meaning, at the moment I am also not too worried, but if a nuke is used it will be a very high gamble, that it will be just the only one.
If the US and Russia stood down and the rest of the world let loose all of their nukes, it would be insufficient to cause sufficient damage to the technological integrity of our species such that backyard solar manufacture becomes viable.
I did not claim that.
I claim it will be hard to limit the use of nuclear weapons.
Just like in the weapons itself, one ignition can trigger a chain reaction in the end forcing russia or US to take part in it as well. If all the people involved are level headed and able to think rational - it likely will prevented also in the future. But if the person in charge is already stressed (and old) and gets lots of pressure - this person, might then feel forced to press a button.
I claim that beyond the open secret that is Israel, the number of countries controlling a right-now detonatable nuclear weapon who are not on the Wikipedia list of "countries with nukes" is less than 5.
You said much more. I think it's fewer than 5.
"Most countries definitely do not have nukes. "
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43209283
Also by my understanding, even 4 more countries having secretly nukes counts as "much more countries having nukes than officially known".
But my point is not semantics, but that even one nuke can trigger a chain reaction. Unknown nukes just makes this more likely.
To make a good, efficient solar panel requires materials and equipment incompatible with backyard manufacture, especially in a collapse scenario.
It's a neat hobby, but if your goal is just "have solar panels", you are strictly better off buying them than making them.