I mean, one wouldn’t attempt something unless one had some measure believe in oneself’s chances. If people attempt stuff they know they will fail… Idk how they do that
On to your point - yes of course people will (and should) attempt things that they believe might work. There is no way to have a crystal ball. All I'm trying to say that consistent success appears very rare when it come to the stock market from what I've heard. The only consistent success in the stock market that I'm aware of, when it come to ordinary mortals is through insider trading etc. which is not an option for most of us.