The dark humor part is, it's the car owners who are going to suffer most. Stockholders and executives probably already sold enough stock to land on a soft pile of money.
The only question that remains is whether or not his brand is still salvageable. I'm leaning towards "no", he has taken things really far now. People are pretty fickle. But he is doing some really extreme things and I think it's going to be hard to walk back. Personally I think the emperor has no clothes but let's see.
Based on what China has been doing with EVs, I'm even questioning the narrative that he actually had much to do with kicking off the EV revolution, or whether or not it was going to happen regardless. I think it's the later. China was already going to be the dominant player and was already moving in the EV direction because their dependence on foreign oil wasn't to their benefit.
I detest Musk, but Tesla was/is one of CATL's largest customers. Without Tesla, the capital to jumpstart the EV Battery industry within China wouldn't truly exist.
The CCP would have backed CATL and BYD regardless, like they have with silicon solar panels and hundreds of other manufacturing segments.
Putting up impressive net income figures better than the other car companies and making the best selling car in the world also helps. Plus SpaceX and Starlink are a success. That kind of track record within 15 years could portend more success in the future.
It does not excuse the other failings, but business wise, I don’t see what trepidation shareholders would have had (prior to the recent Nazi and destroying US civilian institutions actions).
Edit: I didn’t scan close enough… in 2024 the Y was around the 4th best selling Model.
https://www.jato.com/resources/media-and-press-releases/tesl...
>As anticipated in JATO’s preliminary 2023 results, released in February, the Tesla Model Y made history last year. The midsize SUV secured top position in the global ranking as the first ever pure electric vehicle to lead the global market.
And from a business perspective, it was the best selling car amongst the portion of the world with the most money to spend. That is a pretty impressive achievement for any business.
>Impressively, the Model Y secured this position without a presence in most emerging markets, where it continues to be unaffordable for the majority of consumers.
And Tesla indicates it sold a similar number of Model Ys in 2024, so it very well could hold the same title again.
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024...
Tesla Y was also the best-selling car worldwide in 2023 (model 3 was in position 10) https://fiatgroupworld.com/2024/06/16/the-worlds-top-500-bes...
Tesla Y was the 4th best-selling car world wide in 2022 (model 3 came in at position 7) https://ptcgroup.global/top-10-best-selling-cars-worldwide-i...
And even with that, the valuation of TSLA assumes geometric growth in sales to subsume legacy ICE consumer transportation with EVs.
2024 was flat at best, where the market DID expand geometrically for EVs. Those numbers also represented a "segment monopoly" by Tesla. If you wanted an EV in those years, you bought a Tesla.
That is OVER. EVs and charging infrastructure, particularly in Europe are now fully competitive with Tesla. With "European" brands, and generally speaking full access to the superior Chinese models.
What Tesla needed to do in 2022, 2023, and 2024 wasn't the techboy Cybertruck, it should have been Minivans, Delivery vans, a real pickup, compact car, euro compact car, large / medium / small SUVs (Model Y is a medium/small crossover), station wagons.
They should have had cabin options, launched additional brands for ultraluxury and for more consumer price points.
Can't do all that inhouse? They should have acquired a struggling ICE company for stock swaps and gained access to more production and platforms and parts suppliers, and could have released long range PHEVs using their battery packaging for additional scale/demand.
Because Tesla no longer has any drivetrain or battery packaging advantages. Whatever profit margin they've enjoyed will be destroyed in competition. Arguably they have too much cylindrical NMC investment that they are behind the curve in battery supply and packaging with high density LFP and Sodium Ion being superior paths to a cheaper EV battery pack (greater cell to pack density, no wasted weight/space on cooling since LFP/Sodium Ion are much more stable than NMC).
Tesla needed a huge amount of product diversification about five years ago when the Model Y was launched.
It's probably not hard to scam people out of money when you're committing fraud.
I would argue that Tesla did absolutely push the EV industry in the US. China would have dominated outside the US regardless but Tesla's involvement in China probably moved that timeline forward by a few years.
Must controls about 12% of the company, so the remaining 88% of the stock needs to produce the 2/3s majority. So you effectively need 75% of voters to vote against him.
TSLA probably has a large retail segment, and they can't be organized to vote, and generally the TSLA retail crowd is full of Elon fanbois. That leaves institutional investors, and with Musk's alignment with the Trump administration, they are terrified of getting their institutions investigated or harassed.
The only way Musk gets ousted is for the stock to drop so far that a margin call is issued on the loans he has taken on the stock. I don't know what that is, but I suspect it is under 100$/share.
That might force a selloff by Musk, which combined with the price collapse chasing retail investors away, may provide enough voting power for institutions. Still a big IF.
The only other thing would be if board members start resigning, but most of the board is sufficiently amoral and well compensated that it is unlikely.
Regulatory intervention isn't happening for four years. Lawsuits? Probably would need executive branch enforcement, and there's always the Trump pardon to wipe anything away.
The reason for the current high valuation is because people were betting Tesla would be first to another major tech innovation. Self driving taxis, or electric 18-wheel trucks, or some other new market. The more time Elon spends in Washington DC, the slower Tesla is going to be at realizing these advancements.
For $200B you would have a decent shot of actually making a major tech leap in automative and partnering with an existing manufacturer.