A fellow degenerate gambler I see. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, trade with caution. Being early is the same as being wrong.
With DeepSeek it’s been demonstrated you can get pretty damn for a lot cheaper. I can only imagine that there are tons of investors thinking that it’s better to invest their dollars in undercutting the costs of new models vs investing billions in hardware.
The question is, can Nvidia maintain their grip on the market in the face of these pressures. If you think they can’t, then a short position doesn’t seem like that big of a gamble.
I have an AMD minipc running linux that I use for steam gaming, light development, etc. The kernel taint bit is off.
There is one intel device on the pci/usb buses: wifi/bt, and it’s the only thing with a flaky driver in the system. People have been complaining about my exact issue for something like 10 years, across multiple product generations.
If AMD really cared about making money, they would’ve sent MI300s to all of the top CS research institutions for free and supported rocm on every single product. Investing any less than nvidia, the trillion dollar behemoth, is just letting big green expand their moat even more.
That didn’t work out all that well in the medium term (it did in the short term), though it gave them runway to take a big chunk of intel’s server market.
Whether or not that was a good move, it’s not evidence of some engineering shortcoming.
More seriously though: unless you have privileged information or have done truly extensive research, do not short stocks. And if you do have privileged information, still don't short stocks because unless you have enough money to defend yourself against insider trading like Musk and it's ilk, it's not going to be worth it.
It's perfectly reasonable to determine that a particular high growth stock is not going to perform as well going forward, in which case I'd shift allocation to other, better candidates.
Generally, being long equities is a long term positive expected value trade. You don't have to time the market, just be persistent. On the other hand, as you correctly alluded to, shorting equities requires decently precise timing, both on entry and exit.