Failure
possibleprobable.com
possibleprobable.com
Not to put too fine a point on it, as this is clearly just a fluffy inspirational quote, and the article itself is worth reading, but this quote kinda sorta makes no sense. Here's why:
You are then asked if the life will be acceptable. What you find acceptable is a function of who you are. Who you are is also largely a function of the experiences you have had in life. What I find acceptable now is not what I found acceptable 10 years ago and probably not what I will find acceptable in 10 years. So, acceptable from what perspective? The perspective of the person who has lived that life, or the perspective of someone else? Those are two very different perspectives that will lead to very different answers.
Another big hole is that there are only a finite number of existences out there. So surely someone has to be stumped with a life they didn't like. It is condescending and incredibly insulting to tell someone whose life really, really sucks that they chose it.
So, a nice article, with a nice fluffy thought at the beginning, but the gaping holes in that fluffy thought kind of bothered me.
I wonder if many startups feel anywhere close to an 80% chance of success.
Yes, it looks a little bit like crazy.
the first question is how did psychologists ascertain and normalize someone's perception of the chance of success. the second question is how does the system react now that we know about it.
The bottom-line is that you have to entertain online. No entertainment, no visitors. And people aren't entertained when they see a big wall o' text.
If you were even slightly entertained, I'll bet you give his blog another chance next time.
Really, I'm not sure what more he could have said, beyond setting the stage for a grander story.
I wouldn't even say that. Blogs are blogs. They are a certain medium with certain styles & certain breakable 'rules.' Evolution & survivor bias ensure that most blog posts read are the types of blog posts that are appealing to the the people reading them. I see no problem with that. Same goes for novels, biographies, essays, magazine articles or pretty much any category of writing. Nothing wrong with that. A blog within the framework of the style is definitely a useful one to have out there.
I agree because I think this is another way of searching for authenticity in all our decisions: "complacency" is another way to say you're not re-evaluating the choices you've made.
If you've ever wanted to write that little iPhone app, pick up his book and you'll be a pro in few months.
Why do you think you picked this life?
Teen2: Are you being sarcastic, dude?
Teen1: I don't even know anymore.
The explanation I can come up with is that the experience and knowledge of failure gives us an advantage on both sides of the 80-95% spectrum (lets ignore the validity of the numbers for a second). For the times when we feel that our chances our below 80% we get scared and if we had the experience of failure we would be better suited to handle the stress. On the 95% portion I think it keeps you honest by reminding you that you could fail and the consequences if you do.
I was disappointed here. This seems far too trite a conclusion for the thoughts he put forth in the rest of the entry. Did he feel compelled to wrap it up quickly for some reason? I don't know. But there's so much more he could have said, even within a reasonable-length blog entry.
"So let me spell out my thoughts explicitly: If success is the carrot, then failure is the stick, and I think we do our best work when we are conscious of both."