The US has basically said that. It doesn't matter though, because at the end of the day, dramatic foreign policy shifts and realignments only make the U.S. even less attractive as an ally and a partner. Decades of relationships are being strained in the attempt of mending ties with a state that never really did much to advance America's interests in the modern era. And it could all be completely undone in four years. The whip lash of back and forth, radical shifts in policy, are as damaging as the acts that directly alienate America's global partners.

That's already expected. Right now, preparations are made for nuclear (re-)armament of europe. Germany in particular is working towards that at this moment [EDIT: politically. not in the "actively preparing weapons"-phase.].

Also, france has a first-strike policy.

So even without US troops, europe will be fine.

A sizable part of the population has wanted the US out of especially germany for a looong time now, so those movements have become pretty popular again. I haven't heard "ami go home" in a long time, but right now it's common.

> Will this really happen? Or will the US prevent Europe from doing that by saying “then defend from Russia all by yourself?”

If push came to shove, the only ally Ukraine needs to equal Russia (as it is today) is Poland.

They'd rather not have to as it would be expensive, but Poland could match 100% of current outside assistance for Ukraine[0] for a smaller fraction of their GDP than Ukraine itself is currently spending on the war[1].

The USA and Russia agreeing with each other to carve up Ukraine would be a much harder battle.

Well, it would be harder unless DOGE actually does make good on the claim of $2T cuts, because the only way of reaching $2T without touching the "mandatory" budget (mandatory = social security etc.) is to delete the entire armed forces and the CIA (and basically everything else) and just under half the interest payments on the loans, which in turn means they'd have no power to carve anything up.

[0] $380bn over the first 2 years according to Wikipedia, so lets say $190bn/year

[1] Ukraine plans to spend ~$53.7 billion in 2025, about 26% GDP

Poland's GDP is $915, 26% of that would be $237.9 billion / year.

This is already the expectation from our leaders. It is the belief of a good % of EU leaders that, if Russia were to push into Poland and the Baltic states, and Article 5 was invoked, the US would not respond. Or at least not without some Versailles Treaty-level extortion, as they're trying to do with Ukraine.

The US is already effectively saying that.

That's not a problem, US is doing that, effectively marginalizing the importance they will have in the future.

Bidens aid undoubtedly moved the needle, but that’s over and from what I’ve heard weapon deliveries have already stopped.

So I guess my question is aren’t Europe already by themselves?

Oh, we're already looking at the likelihood of Trump arming Russia and joining the war on the side of Putin. But for some people, although probably a minority, that just increases the resolve. They simply will never be part of something like this: https://bsky.app/profile/doctoroxford.bsky.social/post/3liqw...