It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media.
Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies doing great things and delivering products that people use, but they don't make for catchy headlines. So you don't hear about them.
The automation industry with physical products interaction is where my labor shortage lives.
I will be requesting support this year. Software development is about solutions and all industry pivots have a learning curve.
This also means it is a great time to start a small, profitable business because labor is undervalued.
The Internet is basically a young, small portion of writings in english, as far as I can tell.
Even if everything being done with LLMs is useless, if you can do the same amount of useless with half as many developers, it's bad news for us.
Later moved to Oracle / SQL Server / C# / microservices / CICD etc etc) but hell, that was my whole career 2002-2012 across various companies. Making cool tools for smart people, things the accelerated the company in smal;l but measurable ways, that unbeknownst to me would absolutely have directly resulted in a team of 3-5 being reduced to a team of 1, or a team of 1 not being expanded to be a team of 3-5.
The same will happen (IS happening) with LLM's.
"No doubt, in turning them out of this “temporal” world, the machinery caused them no more than “a temporary inconvenience.” For the rest, since machinery is continually seizing upon new fields of production, its temporary effect is really permanent. Hence, the character of independence and estrangement which the capitalist mode of production as a whole gives to the instruments of labour and to the product, as against the workman, is developed by means of machinery into a thorough antagonism. Therefore, it is with the advent of machinery, that the workman for the first time brutally revolts against the instruments of labour."
soon we'll see if the old man was wrong and short-sighted, or if what has happened since the internet revolution is just an abnormal period in centuries
I’m not sure that’s the case even if in retrospect we can clearly argue this
In 1998, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences, infamously predicted that “the growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s” [1] and even though that turned out to be spectacularly wrong it shows the attitude in the early days wasn’t one of absolute certainty.
And certainly the current AI boom is most visibly known for LLMs but there is a lot more happening beyond chatbots.
[1] https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff...
Sears famously laughing at online orders is a great example. They already had the mail over market owned, and already had the distribution, sourcing, and utterly dominant brand recognition in that space. People used to order homes from Sears!
They just needed the online catalog. But the CEO was a psychopath Randian who thought the internet was a fad and now Amazon runs things.
Same with Toy R Us, and Radioshack, which did a lot of mail order.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yX9D3h2F_0
Ironic that Sears back in the day got started with mail order.
Seems like bad management is a cancer on a lot of organizations. Their size protects them for a while, but eventually they get outcompeted.
It's rapidly looking like nerding out while pining for the old days where engineering knowledge and education was valuable is maladaptive. The sunk cost fallacy can be real.
It's best to start hedging and learning other skills. Or focus on making as much money as possible ASAP so you have some financial safety net to fall back to as AI and Trump/Musk and offshoring has increased in recent years. All of us need an escape plan ready.
I don't mean to spread FUD. Just hedge please. I assume I have at most a decade of tech career left in the best case. A couple years in the worst case.
The final phase of this is where Americans start moving to some hut in the Congo to survive off the market wages offered when the supply side of the supply/demand curve blows up.