We were barraged for 6 months about how Twitter would fall over the next day when Elon took over there and took a radical stance, and it just didn't. I'm curious if this will be similar.
Farmers who produced food that was sent abroad by USAID are not getting paid, and will have stock piling up that they don't have a buyer for.
Scientific and health agencies have been muzzled during a time when we are fighting bird flu (millions of flocks dying), there has been human transmission and there is a high risk of another pandemic (bird flu or anything else) coming along. People will die who wouldn't otherwise have to.
The agency which protects Americans from predatory bank fees has been shuttered, so we can expect our banking (like $35 late fees) to get more expensive.
I could go on and on, but our country is not Twitter; it's not even comparable, on almost any level.
Could you go on and on with any actual examples since all of your statements were riddled with "probablies" and "mights" and "wills"?
"If we let go of this it will fall"
"oh yeah 'will' I want real examples of things falling"
"here are examples of things really falling"
"lol right"
...and?
This is such a common thing in tech we have entire websites built around it to track the layoffs.[0] In fact, using that site you can see in February (only 20 days so far) we've had 10,950 tech workers laid off. Expanding it further, in 2024 alone there were over 152,000 tech workers laid off. 2023? Only a mere 264,000 layoffs.
Where is the outrage and emotional blackmail over this for the lowly tech worker, yet we're supposed to bend over and take it while saying this is a bad thing for government workers?
Personally, I think they're just finally experiencing the America they run and they don't like it when it bites them like it bites the average American, and I have to assume that's why it seemingly has such high approval ratings among independent voters.[1]
[0]: https://layoffs.fyi/
[1]: https://www.axios.com/2025/02/14/arizona-voters-trump-elon-m...
I can't imagine crying on linkedin like some of these .gov workers showing up in my feed. I would never be hired again.
What's the matter? The market feeling a little too free for your tastes?
The number one attraction for working for the government is stability, and that's baked into the salary.
If you want to attract skilled workers to work for the government, have the same experiences getting laid off, and get paid less, they're just going to turn to private industry.
Apparently, as of late 2023, the average federal employee made over $101k[0]. "Tech" is vague, but assuming software engineers, the BLS estimated in 2023 a median of $132k[1]. That's not a big enough difference that you wouldn't be worried about layoffs in the private sector. Not everyone gets paid $400k working at a FAANG, and plus, federal jobs have a lot of benefits beyond that headline salary figure.
> The number one attraction for working for the government is stability, and that's baked into the salary.
The longstanding deal was that career civil servants don't get fired every time the White House changes hands and in return, they behave apolitically and implement the decisions made by political appointees (who are responsible to the electorate) in a neutral and expert manner.
That was the whole premise behind stability in government jobs. Back in the days it used to be the case that everyone did get fired between administrations, and they realized this was pretty inefficient.
But career civil servants broke this rule with Trump's first term, with a lot of opposition to political decisions brought on by people who are supposed to be neutral to the politics of it all. What is being reaped now was sown back then. Of course, it sucks for the people who did their jobs as they were supposed to; there is certainly an element of the whole class being punished for the misbehavior of a few.
[0]: https://www.fedsmith.com/2024/01/22/average-federal-salary-t...
[1]: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/...
Well, you can't enter a consistent, efficient and well-maintained system with the intention of throwing things around. Resistance is the only natural reaction to such a disruptive approach and now this resistance is missing we see the chaos Trump 2.0 and Musk cause as they follow the Project 2025 playbook.
Cutting funding for biotech results in loss of jobs and loss of patent filing. Loss of patent filing means loss of people needed for filing patents. On and on. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure this out (some pun intended).
Additionally, the Federal Government is the largest employer in the country. If you both lay off a significant portion of that workforce and cut things like unemployment and other social programs, you are going to have significant increase in unemployment unless there is somehow new jobs for everyone. Add inflation to the mix due to tariffs and a perfect storm of economic despair is on the horizon.
https://bsky.app/profile/jrothst.bsky.social/post/3liin7up3c... It seems almost unavoidable at this point that we are headed for a deep, deep recession. Just based on 200K+ federal firings & pullback of contracts, the March employment report (to be released April 4) seems certain to show bigger job losses than any month ever outside of a few in 2008-9 and 2020.
Higher unemployment leads to lower consumer spending - the USA economy is built on consumer spending.
They've already damaged research/education, even if somehow it all gets undone. There's absolutely no reason to cause a brain drain in a country that has historically attracted students from all over the world.
Normal people don't consider leaving their country over losing one job.
I'm saying that with a bit of self-deprivation. These people in my opinion bring value to society with their jobs. In contrast to many IT roles where that can be a bit questionable sometimes. My own employment included.
Well, our inflation rose to 3% in a month, a few people have died over all these illegal spending freezes, we had a repeat of the Saturday Night Massacre[0] where 6 or 7 judges resigned due to Trump wanting to basically hold blackmail over a corrupt Mayor's case to be temporarily dropped. Those are the most immediate and obvious effects seen after one month off the top of my head.
>Elon took over there and took a radical stance, and it just didn't. I'm curious if this will be similar.
I don't know why people say this when Twitter had clear changes to day to day use. Let alone to anyone investing in Twitter. Smaller content creators get even less organic engagement, celebrities are harassed more because of blocking changes, commenters get worse, more toxic community.
The effects only aren't felt if you use Twitter to get news and you avoid comments, or an account. Even then Twitter makes it harder to view stuff without an account. The fall of Rome took years, if not decades. If you're just expecting anything software to collapse like a demolition project you need perspective on how people define "drastic".
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On topic: no, don't compare this to Twitter that no one needs in a day to day. The US economy will get noticeably worse, jobs will be harder to find and more people will be let go, The GDP will fall, and if March goes horribly a lot of old people will be on the the street dying. It's not going to all happen in one day, but lives will be lost over these reckless changes. The US isn't exactly doing too well with foreign policy either so that'll be the most obvious effect for you. Our country will probably shift to rely less on us goods.
[0]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_Night_Massacre
March will be no different than January.
Sure, there's 3 vectors I'm looking at here.
Legislative:
- The government shuts down for 3 or more days before deciding a budget. 1990 shutdown was the most similar situation (which includes Medicaid cuts, but ironically enough was trying to raise taxes) and lasted that long.
Executive:
- Trump vetoes the budget more than once. 1990 as a reference once again, H.W. Bush vetoed the 2nd proposal , once total.
Judicial:
- Trump and congress decide on a budget but judges intervene on the allocation. I'm not sure if this ever happened, but I couldn't find any accounts. So I'd say involving all 3 branches qualifies
---
- I'll also lump in any significant attempts at violence or death (natural or otherwise) over any politicians involved in such budget debates as part of that (the most literal "bloodbath" possible)
Those seem like fair enough criteria?
>How much would you like to bet? Is 20k a good number?
I'm sadly still a part of an extended job search, so I have no real money to bet. But if this was 2022, I'd probably put 5k onto it in terms of confidence.
It's still drastic, though. 10% every year means 100b in cuts to Medicaid. More money than what's allocated to the DoED
For most of them having to switch to any of the existing ways that people under 65 can get health insurance would cost them significantly more and significantly reduce their coverage.
For those who are on traditional Medicare it would also mean going from being able to see nearly any non-HMO doctor (over 90% of non-HMO doctors accept Medicare) to going to managed care insurance where they have to deal with in network vs out of network and where the insurance company is practically looking over your doctor's shoulder and interfering in your care.
Messing significantly with Medicare would thus seriously piss off about 60 million people over the costs and reduced coverage that alternatives provide, and piss of the 28 million of those who are on traditional Medicare even more because of having to switch to managed care.
45% of those people have guns in their households. Most probably wouldn't resort to violence, but there are 27 million of them. That's enough that I'd be surprised if that doesn't leave thousands who would resort to violence.
Look at how many people seem to think the UHC CEO killing was justified, and this would be a lot more disgruntled people.
- Debt repayments are entering a level similar to 1990s due to high rates and debt, meaning the government will eventually have to use inflation to reduce it.
- Trump's hostility to energy and housing, two primary drivers of inflation
- Tariffs
- Deportations of farm workers
Inflation expectations according to surveys and rates markets are back up to 2021 levels.
The only thing pushing against inflation is a relatively strong real economy, which isn't guaranteed to last if the tariffs and deportations happen.
That wasn't my point though. Twitter itself changed, which was expected and (I assume) intended. My point was the months of us being told constantly by the media that the sky is falling - the servers would fall over tomorrow, the advertisers would all leave and there would be no money, etc. This was literally daily for at least a month.
Now, Twitter is still up and running fine (from a technical and assumedly financial perspective). It appears Elons methods worked fine, and all the other major tech companies also went on a mass firing spree to trim the fat.
I'm honestly not sure how this compares with similar changes to a federal government - or if it does at all. But the context of my comment came from the GPs point, fat cutting and applying highly profitable tech start approaches to a federal government is an interesting thought exercise and especially so for a country that values capitalism over people so highly.
Every significant government policy being added or removed has real world impact - both positive and negative. I'm curious if the positives will outweigh the negatives in this case.
That seems to be my point tho. you're imagining Twitter collapsing in a few days and going out of business. That's not really how things work.
Twitter went private so no one really knows how well it's doing. I'd bet any confidence in Twitter these days isnt really in Twitter so much as Musk hype, however.
>. It appears Elons methods worked fine, and all the other major tech companies also went on a mass firing spree to trim the fat.
By waht metric? Financial is dubious of you're following the scene. Workers, certainly not. I guess in the metric that it let him buy the election. That's pretty big, I'll admit. I don't think thst trick will work twice, given his current reputation.
In the sense that "it is operating as a domain?" MySpace is still"up and running fine " in 2025. Digg is still up and running in 2025. Such name brands so well known don't really die in a literal sense; someone's going to buy and try to salvage it even after Musk sells it one day.
>MySpace is still"up and running fine " in 2025. Digg is still up and running in 2025. Such name brands so well known don't really die in a literal sense ; someone's going to buy and try to salvage it.
What positives are you imagining? We pay off the defecit? This ephemeral mood of "corruption" is dealt with? That you get a tax cut? Maybe the 3rd one will save you a few thousand a year.
I don't see many upsides here that counter balance this. That's pretty much my whole reservation of this comment. It just seems to be saying "well maybe we get something good out of it" while dimissing the bad that's already come. All on a basis of a company that didn't completely die out from the same cuts and suggesting it "works" because of that.
The effects have started to be felt, but nowhere near the lecel they will be if things continue much longer this way; as well as the directed impacts, a generale economic slowdown is expected as a fairly near-term second ordee effect. Lots of direct job losses plus people holding off spending because of a cloud of uncertainty is a great way to make a recession.
https://www.statnews.com/2025/02/18/impact-of-trump-federal-...
If I were to bet on it, yes it will be similar. My guess is that things will over all be better 3/4 years from now, after some initial pain.
The expanded ACA tax subsidies are very unlikely to be renewed. This will result in about 5.6 million Americans (26% of the people with marketplace insurance) who can no longer afford healthcare and are left to rely on emergency rooms, which is a cost we all end up bearing anyway.
Our allies have lost all trust for us. They already hated Trump in his first term because he was stupid and confrontational and transactional in a truly ignorant way, and him getting re-elected after some pretty obvious poor governing means that our allies no longer trust not just our government, but the actual people who voted him in. The ignorance and pettiness and hatred of the American voter means investing in the US as an ally has become a very stupid thing to do.
I'm cancelling a vacation outside the US because I have no interest in interacting with border agents who feel empowered and vindictive. I already cannot travel to certain US states where a pregnancy scare can become a crime.
Our state economy has been buoyed nicely by the shitload of Asylum seekers from all over the world who are educated and just want to work, but are often not allowed to for dumb reasons. Lack of funding and a hostile immigration environment will only hasten the death of our state, which has a very old population.
Three large parts of our economy are: Lumber trade with Canada, Tourism with a lot of that coming from China, and selling lobster to China. With another trade war, that's all fucked. Before China became a buyer of our lobster, the industry was dying because they were catching too much and they had to keep selling lobster for cheaper than ground beef.
The farmers up state who grow potatoes will be fine, since it's been industrialized since before I was born. Everything else we grow is going to get a lot more expensive with less migrant labor, so I hope you don't like broccoli. Alternatively, we replace migrant labor with chain gang workers from the local prisons and enjoy the (literal) fruits of slavery.
So it seems like this just puts is back to how it was in 2023. Doesn't seem like a drastic change.