(1) If the Show HN succeeds, then they can save their Launch HN card to play later; if it doesn't succeed, they can go ahead and do a Launch HN soon afterwards.
(2) Show HN is more about the project/tech, especially when it's open-source. Launch HN is more about the startup/business.
(3) Nowadays many startups offer an open-source (or open core) version for free, then make money with a hosted version. For these, it's a good fit to first do a Show HN about the open-source offering, and then later do a Launch HN about the cloud product.
An example of actual advice I've heard, using the terms of your comment, might be: keep "the nerds" happy with free open-source software that actually works, then charge money for things that companies (especially enterprise companies) actually prefer to pay for.
The "paid hosted offering" pattern is the most common of these, since technical users might want to run their own instances but IT departments typically do not.