However, my understanding is that airlines have much more sophisticated per-flight and per-passenger models that calculate the predicted no-show factor based on the historical rates for that particular route (e.g. you're more likely to get more no-shows in business class flying from NYC to SF compared to holiday travelers with a reservation on the Florida Keys)
I can't imagine spending hundreds of dollars and just not showing up.
Side note: His employer is the biggest client of a major European airline.
Do I feel better taken care of if I can just take the following morning's flight at no additional cost or hassle, or if I now need to contact someone at Amex Global Business Travel, have them try to get me on a flight, have another expense, potentially not be able to get on the next flight or the one after that, etc.
* when I travelled to a single city with 20+ colleagues for several years, our nightly hotel rate was less than quarter of published rate. I don't think we got anything like that on Airlines, but nevertheless, bulk gets discounts.
* I forget details but between specific frequent cities which had hourly flights, we had full flexibility and we used this all the time. So we might catch a flight hour earlier if there was one available, or hour later if need be than booked.
Basically to everybody's point, business travel is very different than vacation travel and intuition from once a year personal trip don't apply.
* Yes of course there are negotiated discounts for major corporations- but full flexibility is still far more expensive than restricted tickets, just like business is still far more expensive than economy.
* Most airlines offer guaranteed same-day changes, or at least priority standby, to high-status loyalty members (which most consultants are) so buying full-flex tickets to get an hour earlier/later flexibility is redundant - basically, paying for a benefit you already have.
Maybe they've figured out that enabling their employees to stay a few extra hours without worry to finish a deal is worth it.
And as stated elsewhere, the majority of consultants are relatively junior people whose role has nothing to do with negotiating contracts.
The goal isn't to eliminate flexibility, it's understanding probabilities. If fully-flexible/refundable flights are 3x the fare of restricted, then in aggregate, the company could have a chunk of consultants throw out their original reservations and rebook later flights, and still save money. Yes- sometimes consultants need to stay longer than planned, but in an age of prioritizing "work-life balance," most consultants are encouraged to stick to their schedule and get back home when originally planned.
(The really ultra cheap Ryanair flights are less of a thing now, but in 2019 they were very much a factor)