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Comment by wewewedxfgdf | Hacker News Reader

>> Assuming that anyone in the government still cares.

Schneier hits the mark here.

Government only works at all if people care.

And if you tell someone that their job, and the organisation they work for - are of no value - then those people won't care any more.

I don't know what the outcome would be of large swathes of the government either being fired or not caring any more but we're going to find out and I don't think it will be good.

Or maybe not, maybe Trump and whathisname are right and government really is a complete waste of money. In which case there will be great money savings and the USA will be the better for it.

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Any great money savings isn’t going to come from getting rid of personnel. Spending on government employees is only 6.8% of the budget. If they reach their goal of cutting 10%, that’s still less than 1% of the budget. They are going to have to cut Medicare, Social Security and military spending to make a dent.

If you believe Musk wont reach it you are dreaming. Just cutting all funding to all those NGO and those foreign news institutions will do it. In many countries a big chunk of governments workers are bs jobs and are just there to maintain an aging machine look like its working while helping reducing unemployment rate by financing useless jobs.

That still doesn’t make the math add up. Is saving .68% in federal spending a win especially with the proposed budget causing more deficit spending?

You remove the workers not to save on salary but to save on budget you will allocate to a department. Its like any company. The smaller the dept the smaller the budget and influence.

The math still doesn’t add up.

https://www.federalbudgetinpictures.com/where-does-all-the-m...

If you got rid of every department that DOGE is targeting completely, you still only save 8%

He is going to cost way more in damage dealt than he will save. The goal is not to save money and only fools would think that it is.

In the game Civilization, there are different ways to achieve victory, one of which is a Cultural Victory.

A lot of the foreign aid the US does is kind of like this, where we're attempting to shift other countries to our way of life through a mix of direct aid, loans, news, and other methods.

There's a real long term ROI on these things where it's inarguably to the US' benefit that other countries want to speak English, use USD, operate businesses similarly to how we do, etc.

There are a few interesting channels on YT of Africans singing Chinese folk and pop songs. Quite fascinating and a sign of how China has been able to spread influence in Africa through investment. (Of course none of it a free ride)

There a great documentary called Empire of Dust from 2011 that follows Chinese engineers building roads in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

https://m.imdb.com/title/tt2148945/

When it gets mentioned online it mostly seems to be racists suggesting Africans are inferior, partly based on the Chinese engineer's frustration with local customs and graft and labour market.

But I found it quite humanising of both the African and Chinese people featured. The director is Belgian, which controlled the region up until independence 50 years before filming.

It's extremely ironic that Musk is the one defunding all the US covert influence programs, which leftists have been complaining about for decades.

Exactly my point. The only explanation possible is that left and right wing only serve one purpose: make sure the empire remains

Without themselves knowing it, or something? I don't get it. At this pace, the empire will crumble pretty soon.

I totally agree with you. Except id pin it much less positively than you. The goal is not to help “allies” but to make sure they don’t outcompete us. This is what the money was for. Just like any superpower did (you know the russian interference you all hated)

Behold, your budget: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ea/2023_US_...

You can't cut $2T without cutting at least some "mandatory" spending or your interest payments, because the total of absolutely all your "discretionary" spending comes to a total of $1.7T.

Your "discretionary" spending includes your entire active military. Not the retired military, that's "mandatory" spending, but all your active military.

Your non-military "discretionary" spending is $0.9T, less than half of what people are talking about cutting.

Government is a huge ship where everything happens slowly. If you fire all sailors at once, you won't notice the difference immediately. The phantom ship continues to sail.

Then engines start to heat up and fail. And if there's an obstacle along the way, it's game over.

This is a dangerous game played by morons full of hubris.

On June 16 YC organizes an "AI Startup School"; the first speaker is Elon Musk:

https://www.ycombinator.com/blog/ai-startupschool

What a shame.

The good thing about these massive ships is that they take a loong time to sink.

If my guesses are correct, it’ll work just long enough for another administration to take over to deal with the fallout.

Just be careful when using analogies. The massive ship named USSR sank in a matter of months.

I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.

Such resets are sometimes followed by civil wars, economy crashes style "there is no food for tomorrow" and a generational trauma. As the one who has been through it, be careful what you wish for.

Man to man, you and I both know -- if you've really been there -- that while no one hopes for one many thrive on it. GP may well be one of those.

> I honestly prefer that outcome. At least that’d be a reset instead of this infinite downward cycle.

If the USA gets a repeat of the USSR collapse, you're looking at an independent Texas and California (and perhaps Hawaii?) within a few years, 50% GDP loss, proper hyperinflation, infighting over the nuclear arsenal being under federal authority or the authority of whichever state it happened to be physically in at the time, and a 6-7 year reduction in life expectancy.

Yeah, but Europe will finally realize their big brother is a dysfunctional alcoholic.

That'll show them losers.

I guess it could be argued that it had been in the process of sinking for a longer time, but I don't know enough about the history of the USSR to assert that being the case

> The massive ship named USSR sank in a matter of months

There was a decade of dysfunction and ossification before the USSR collapsed within a couple months

A decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity all happened quietly over the 1980s before catalyzing into collapse.

Sure, you can tell now when looking back. But at the time, it tremendously surprised everyone, both inside and outside.

The country could have continued like this for years, if not decades, were it not for a few men and coincidental events.

> decade of low oil prices (affecting exports), high defense spending (increasing deficit), societal unrest due to the resurgence of nationalism, and slowing productivity

Good thing the US hasn't .. oh.

(the oil price is actually OK as is the trade balance, so far, but social cohesion is fraying and people are always complaining about productivity)

Many of these things have been happening in the US for the better part of a decade (or longer).

Did the USSR have an entire administration rapidly and deliberately tearing down their government, or was it more of the cracks in the foundation finally giving out?

Just because the former took a decade doesn't mean that this will require the same amount of time.

US productivity is going into things like un-avoidable advertisements from your new Jeep when you come to a stop, embedding dark patterns for everything, and spending all R&D on a tool to replace all human workers. A nation can totally be held together heathily under today's 'productivity'.

But that's exactly my point. Nothing happens for decades (apparently!) and then it all crashes in minutes.

Is it a good thing though? It means it takes the same loong time until problems are noticed and reacted upon.

With the right people in place, inspections and preventative maintenance happen

> If my guesses are correct, it’ll work just long enough for another administration to take over to deal with the fallout.

Assuming things have not deteriorated too much by then that it can still be fixed.

Further, if it completely breaks down by then they may get the blame, even though it was not their fault.

This also assumes that an administration with a different philosophy gets in: if things are still "fine", another bunch of GOP deconstructionists could get in and continue things. In addition, DOGE is not about cost-cutting but about ideological purging, and so what's left of the civil service could act to sabotage any 'recovery efforts'.

> The good thing about these massive ships is that they take a loong time to sink.

Faster than people realise. The CIA was surprised by suddenness and swiftness of the collapse of the USSR — yes, there were other predictions that it would collapse imminently, but such are made of every country and organisation all the time, of those who should have known best (the Russian government on the inside, the CIA on the outside), it was a surprise.

> Government is a huge ship where everything happens slowly. If you fire all sailors at once, you won't notice the difference immediately. The phantom ship continues to sail.

Happens to business too. People don’t realise how long these entities can circle the drain.

I feel like businesses aren't actively trying to dismantle themselves, but rather the decay, due to neglect/hubris/greed/..., builds to a critical mass over time. This administration is actively trying to dismantle as much of the government as fast as possible. I think the fall could happen much faster than people expect.

The Global Reserve Currency status the US Dollar now enjoys, is quite unlikely to survive this Administration.

We in the US are about to take a 50 to 90% drop in our standard of living as a result. 8(

States need Vendettas- to those who wipe them out- we will hunt you and your offspring to the end of the earth. Those who destroy complexity, for all the insane ideology reasons - be they Khemer Rouge, liberal galt grey or nazi brown- if the state recovers and rebuilds, it shall come after all of you, your descendants and your insane inspiration givers.

If Aynn Rands Great great grandniece has to fear for her life over this - so be it. To propagate this self-destructive retardation has to be a curse on all who give in to it. Just because the mine runneth dry and you want to fire up the carrying wood for warmth, does not make it a valid opinion.

>>I don't know what the outcome would be of large swathes of the government either being fired or not caring any more but we're going to find out and I don't think it will be good.

Job security is a big part of why somebody takes up a government job. And it even makes sense. People trade stability for some percentage of extra money they could earn. You are not likely to hire good talent for what government pays.

On the other hand, I can't think of a bigger disaster than running a continent spanning government like you would run a start up.

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