I feel like I keep repeating myself
You got some things right
VAT countries can export tax-free because VAT is refunded
Even though VAT itself is not a tariff, its refund system effectively subsidizes exports by removing domestic tax costs
You are missing the trade impact of VAT refunds though
It is a fact that US goods tend to be more expensive in VAT countries like the EU because they face an extra tax burden upon import that EU goods do not face when exported to the US. This extra burden is the VAT that the consumer now has to pay. Whereas when it’s exported to the US, the US consumer does not have to pay the VAT so the trade playing field is not equal.
That’s why Trump sees VAT as a “hidden tariff.” Even though VAT is not a tariff, it functions like one by favoring VAT-based exports