I agree completely that an LLM's first attempt to write a Semgrep rule is likely as not to be horseshit. That's true of everything an LLM generates. But I'm talking about closed-loop LLM code generation. Unlike legal arguments and medical diagnoses, you can hook an LLM up to an execution environment and let it see what happens when the code it generates runs. It then iterates, until it has something that works.
Which, when you think about it, is how a lot of human-generated code gets written too.
So my thesis here does not depend on LLMs getting things right the first time, or without assistance.