Are DOGE's Claims of Social Security Payments to 150-Year-Olds Way Off Base?
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My gosh, if everything they ever (wrongly) assume is that the people _actually doing their jobs_ where frauds and that it's unnecessary to _ask_...
That cannot work out. And either Musk is too stupid to réalisé, or it's by intention (to destroy). Hint: the outcome is the same. Damage done.
No doubt, less frequently than junior engineers do, but I don't think from the mere fact that someone has "jumped to conclusions" on an occasion, you can draw any firm conclusions as to their seniority.
ProPublica has published a list of alleged DOGE staff [0] and one of their software engineers is 37, and he previously worked as a CTO. Another DOGE staffer is 36, and she previously worked as head of engineering at a startup, and before that did software development for Goldman Sachs. So it sounds like they do have some "senior engineers"
I would not be able to tweet without first having a look and trying for more than 12 seconds to understand why this anomaly existed.
I think you have exactly what it takes to uncritically accept whatever you see at first glance and comment about it on social media. You're doing it right now!
The idea doesn't even stand up to basic common sense. Nobody ever thought about the default date in the social security database system before?? Really??? "Uhh, guys, maybe this should be a 'not null' field?"
There is a whole chapter in their manual about how to establish age for people who don't have a birth certificate. They don't just enter null.
https://secure.ssa.gov/apps10/poms.nsf/lnx/0200302000!opendo...
I never claimed it to be true. I did not claim it was proof of fraud, I did not claim it was incompetence, I did not claim it was the deep state.
[0]: https://xcancel.com/elonmusk/status/1632810081497513993
What I have seen in my part of the developer world, is very brittle stacks/setups where minor changes have butterfly effects on completely unrelated parts. Pushing straight to important branches, build depending on several pretty unrelated repos, unclear and messy dependencies, etc etc. I can totally understand such a claim.
For those who don’t remember that era: https://www.theregister.com/2012/11/08/twitter_epic_traffic_...
We do know Elon isn’t anywhere near as smart as he likes to project in areas of modern computing, so I tend to not believe his claims.
This was the man who publicly called a senior developer at Twitter an idiot for saying something about the government using SQL.
However, that error took me to the Wikipedia page and I learnt that cobalt was named in relation to kobolds (goblins/gnomes) as cobalt ore was a hazard to silver miners - it gives off arsenic fumes when smelted.
Nothing they have done suggests competence, reliability, or honesty.
This entire tangent is based off Elon Musk not understanding COBOL or the thing he's looking at before he started ranting on X.
There's literally not enough information about anything, it's just anything which can be spun to fit the narrative he's already determined.
The real world is full of anomalies and missing data, the system deals with it according to the law and administrative precedent.
Edit: here you go: https://www.ssa.gov/help/iClaim_poa.html
When dealing with a population the size of the USA, and edge case you can imagine will be hit. Dealing with uncertainty is a must.
What would invalidate the benefits is death. This 150 year old business is a corner case obviously, so finding those dead people is not so easy. I'd assume there are more checks issued to dead people who were never reported than dead people who were properly recorded as dead. I don't know the frequency of fraud in either case but one is easier to get away with than the other.
In my country such cases get an unknown date of birth. Having just a year of birth is also possible.
Many service members during the drafts would add or subtract a few years with the help of local authorities.
My grandfather didn't know his birth year and lied to make himself seem younger when it suited him.
I have great-grandparents without any documentation that we suspect were fleeing wars or had been shanghaied
I have at least one 3x great-grandparent with only a first name before her marriage. We know nothing else about her.
There have been a lot of threads of 'Things Programmers Believe About Time' that are worth looking into. The exceptions to 'computer time' and reality are fun and tough to deal with. Same things apply to names. Suffice to say, Elon's crack team hasn't really thought of the reality of life and the messiness of it.
But that's not the point and we all know it.
Think of the United States during the Great Depression, for instance. Today’s 80 to 100 year olds were born in that era.
Do we know those people are actually receiving support? Could be a hack of the system to take people out of welfare, without removing their whole entry. Maybe those are (again) double-entries with a different purpose, or dead people, or future receivers, or old entries, or just poor data. Just looking at a database, without looking at the business-logic, is usually not a good argument. Heck, It would be actually funny if the DOB of those entries is just saved in a different table or field, and they just did not understand what they are looking at.
Moreover, the SSA's actual Numerical Identification (NUMIDENT) files, the master records for applications/deaths/claims, appears to stored dates in text as either YYYYMMDD or MMDDYYYY strings according to their archived versions.
https://www.openicpsr.org/openicpsr/project/207202/
I think it's more likely that there are missing death records for some entries (which isn't really a problem unless there are active claims), data entry error, someone didn't get the most recent NUMIDENT iteration (the records are essentially append-only) or did something silly like tried to treat social security numbers as unique ids.
> we've got people in there that are about 150 years old
From that I don't get whether it is 1 person or N people, whereas N is more probable IMHO. However, how big N is, is unknown.
Having well documented existence since birth is fairly recent. Not everyone has clear birth certificates. For example, my father and his younger brother have the same birth year.
So it checks that really old people have unknown birthdate.
My mom's birth county's records building burned down in the 1940s. She has no birth certificate. When government agencies hear this, they ask if there are baptism records. The records from the church where she was baptized burned in the 1950s. It's been a massive pain for her, and government data systems are exposed to cases like this.
Data at sufficient scale is incredibly messy because many seemingly impossible things have a reasonable probability of being present.
In the absence of a null value and proper null processing, zero seems to be the right value. It's clearly exceptional and intuitive to anyone who encounters it in the data, and it would allow the rest of the system to work correctly.
Social security eligibility doesn't have a maximum age but it does have a minimum. If a person claims Social Security without proof of age then their eligibility is dealt with administratively.
So the headline is right, this is 100% a political issue, since any fair minded person with relevant experience wouldn't jump to claiming fraud in this situation but rather they'd assume a data issue.
Has Musk made a public retraction on this? We know a lie spreads faster than the truth, and given how loudly he crowed about finding 150 year olds, he should be at least as loud correcting himself.
From yesterdays submission "The Oligarchs Who Came to Regret Supporting Hitler" https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/hitler-oli... :
> To this end, Hugenberg practiced what he called Katastrophenpolitk, “the politics of catastrophe,” by which he sought to polarize public opinion and the political parties with incendiary news stories, some of them Fabrikationen—entirely fabricated articles intended to cause confusion and outrage. According to one such story, the government was enslaving German teenagers and selling them to its allies in order to service its war debt. Hugenberg calculated that by hollowing out the political center, political consensus would become impossible and the democratic system would collapse.
mmm sounds familiar
1) Assume Social Security has a field called "verified birthday by US birth certificate" which is a timestamp measured in days. 2) Assume this timestamp starts on May 20, 1875 which was once a COBOL epoch standard. 3) Assume if someone does not have a verified birth certificate that field will be 0. 3) Assume one of Musk's junior engineers runs a query against the SS database on this field. 4) Assume said engineer runs the results through an AI trained to spot various kinds of fraud and asks it to spot anything unusual. 5) Assume the AI spits out "We have found X million records matching fraud parameters since ages are over 120 years old." 6) Assume said engineer excitedly runs over to Musk with the results and Musk does not bother contacting anyone at the Social Security Administration to see if there is a logical alternative explanation other than fraud since he never bothered to check the $50 million worth of condoms to Gaza claim.
Was it? I've never heard of that date in connection with COBOL before.
I've heard some people try to connect it to ISO 8601, but I think that's a misinterpretation – yes, the text of some versions of the ISO 8601 standard refers to that date, but only as a fixed point of reference to formally define the ISO 8601 timescale – really an editorial choice which makes no difference to implementations of the standard, which aren't supposed to treat that date in any way specially, and I'm not aware of any that actually do. Furthermore, the reference to this date in ISO 8601 was apparently only inserted in its 2004 revision, while surely this system is much older than that
Now, it isn't impossible that some SSA computer system actually does use "1875-05-20" as some kind of "sentinel" value. Sentinel values like that are actually quite common in legacy systems. But if it does, I don't think it is because it is following any kind of widespread standard (whether COBOL or ISO 8601), I think it may just be an idiosyncrasy of the SSA or of that particular computer system.
But, here's my own guess as to what is happening here: some random anonymous DailyKos commenter has come up with a speculative, and ultimately incorrect, guess as to why DOGE is wrong – and people all over the Internet are now repeating it, because they like what it says, and don't know enough about the technical details involved to realise it is likely wrong. It wouldn't surprise me if SSA computers don't treat the date "1875-05-20" specially at all, and that is just an invention of this commenter
Which is not to say DOGE's claims are right – it is entirely possible that they are wrong – just not for this reason, for some other reason instead...
Which COBOL? COBOL for AIX:
> The beginning of the Lilian date range is Friday 15 October 1582, the date of adoption of the Gregorian calendar. Lilian dates before this date are undefined.
* https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/cobol-aix/5.1?topic=times-feedba...
COBOL for z/OS
> DATE-OF-INTEGER […] A positive integer that represents a number of days succeeding December 31, 1600, in the Gregorian calendar. The valid range is 1 to 3,067,671, which corresponds to dates ranging from January 1, 1601 thru December 31, 9999.*
* https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/cobol-zos/6.4?topic=functions-da...
So two COBOLs, from the same vendor (IBM), have different epochs. More:
> CEECBLDY: Converts character date value to the COBOL Integer format. Day one is 01 January 1601 and the value is incremented by one for each subsequent day. […]
> CEEISEC: Converts binary year, month, day, hour, minute, second, and millisecond to a number representing the number of seconds since 00:00:00 14 October 1582
* https://www.ibm.com/docs/en/zos/2.5.0?topic=services-basics-...
See also:
> I have seen COBOL epochs in active use of 1600.01.01, 1875.05.24, 1900.01.01, 0000.00.00, 1970.01.01, 2000.01.01. and others.
* https://old.reddit.com/r/ISO8601/comments/1ipikj5/those_who_...
Then you cite an pseudonymous Reddit comment which claims they've seen a COBOL implementation using 1875-05-24 (not actually 1875-05-20, although maybe they meant to say 20 and the 24 is a mistake) – but can't even tell us what it is named.
Maybe, somewhere out there, is a COBOL implementation which actually does use 1875-05-20: but if nobody can name it, we don't even know that it exists.
And even if someone actually succeeds in digging up the name of a COBOL implementation using 1875-05-20 as an epoch date, can we be sure that is actually the COBOL implementation SSA is using?
So it seems that not having a birthday, or having one that's a default, should be a red flag.
Without it a lot of people born during the great depression, born in other countries, abandoned, etc would never be eligible for social security. Even today it's entirely possible for a child to be born in the US without their birth being documented.
[1] https://www.ssa.gov/help/iClaim_poa.html
[2] https://secure.ssa.gov/apps10/poms.nsf/lnx/0200302000!opendo...
The more skeptical part of me wonders if this is all part of the broader Trump strategy to flood the media with as much misinformation as possible. An adversarial party can produce bullshit at a much higher rate than it can be verified. Based on the communications we've seen so far, I find it hard to believe that these people are acting in good faith.
It's not even that I'd expect perfection. If the DOGE team was producing tons of claims acting in good faith, they'd probably make some mistakes. But the failure rate smells of malicious action or incompetence.
They are tangentially pursing <some political goal I agree with>, thereby I will latch onto <whatever implausible deniability they have for what they are doing>.
Also, the strategy of "flooding the zone" is something Bannon openly talked about. When these people say they will do X and we then see them doing X, we really should stop saying things like "skeptical paranoid part of me think they might be doing X".
Let's just say my contempt for this utter clown is NP, and my disappointment that critical government systems lack the security required to stop this nonsense is almost as large.
And of course that’s just BFS.
I’m not at all disagreeing with you though. The lack of adults in the room, the apparent lack of proper background checking, the fact that the kids DOGE has running around have no real experience, it’s all alarming.
And no one seems interested in talking about it. The legal world is on fire right now. The lawyers that keep the country running in accordance with the laws are sounding the alarm and no one seems interested in answering and it’s $&)@-/; embarrassing as a country.
My guess would be that it's an error in expanding a two-digit year. But we don't know if the error is in the original application controlling the payments, or if the error was in a report made by a 19-year-old DOGE employee.
The man has a very complicated relationship with honesty.