There is an internet meme in Japan called “Odrokiya(驚き屋)” who are overly surprised by the release of OpenAI and overstate the usefulness of AI. Should we think of AI as being hyped by such people?
Are ai advancements being OVERLY hyped? Yes. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing to them, though.
Are ai advancements being hyped by paid ai hype shills? My guess would be yes. Again, that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to them.
Will the max usage end up being as high as current hypers are hyping? Unknowable. There is SOME amount of false hype, but also SOME amount of meat to the hype, and SOME amount of continued improvement in ai abilities. If ai abilities (not just underlying model strength, but also the ability to harness models in real use cases) stopped increasing today, then the total realized gain from AI would fall short of existing hype. If ai abilities continue to increase, then who knows when the hype bubble will pop.
Either way, when the hype bubble DOES pop, it will fail to reach the usefulness of peak hype, but that “when” could be tomorrow or could be after 10x improvement in actual usefulness.
Suddenly you’ll see a lot of accounts on x and Reddit like this:
“Woah blown away by _____, really surprising. I think I just had my ah hah moment.”
It is being sold as being able to replace 5% of the economy… today.
Anyone working in data science and ai development. Already know ai has already started to reach its limits…
nm, replacing developers or AGI.
Most of the economy is entry level positions. You sieve these positions to get mid level talent. You sieve them again to get senior level talent.
What will naturally happen when a business sector that is a natural labor multiplier but only about 5% of the economy, multiplies that labor with the outcome being entry level positions are replaced.
5% affecting 90%. Will it take over completely, not at the time we talk about this. We know people age and die eventually.
What happens when there is no economic incentive because there are is no economic demand for entry level positions which would be needed to get the remaining 10% of mid and senior positions as an aggregate?
Its a sequential pipeline. No one going in, means no one coming out. The pool shrinks over time until it collapses. No AGI needed...
The mere expectation to business leadership that labor can be replaced by using AI, regardless of outcome because debt financing decouples these, ensures you've already integrated before you can see the problem, and by the time you see it there is nothing you can do to solve it. Its a classic cascade failure, like a dam breaking, or snow pack that becomes an avalanche.
In other words, these are the problems where lives are lost at least once, in order to find the co-factors that objectively show the cascade failures so you can react and adapt in time.
A stock market crash is nothing compared to a global production crash.
AI is not a hype. AI & Robotics are a phase of technological evolution.
99.999999% of AI scenarios will lead to extinction of humanity.
Doomers are smart. Optimists are delusional.
Humanity is playing with extinction level fire. We are accelerating towards it.