As the chart is updated bi-weekly, but the data point that may change is for the current year. The first few days or weeks of a new year are less accurate compared to the end of a year. As the chart is updated bi-weekly, but the data point that may change is for the current year. The first few days or weeks of a new year are less accurate compared to the end of a year.January 2023: https://web.archive.org/web/20230130185431/https://www.cpube...
Still, both previous years were notably up after the first month already. This is different and perhaps notable regardless. Either the release schedule is skewed forward or the hardware is genuinely stagnating. Or perhaps the benchmark is hitting some other CPU unrelated bottleneck.
Just because the error isn't presented the same here doesn't mean it's error free...
They have more than twice as many samples on their Feb 10 update this year (47810) as they did last year on Feb 14 (22761). They have shown some growth year on year in sample size, but nowhere near doubling.
That suggests this month has been an outlier in having a strangely large number of samples already, which could all be related—maybe their software started being bundled with a specific OEM or was featured on a popular content creator or whatever.
As a sibling notes, less accurate just means less accurate, not necessarily skewed upward. There simply is less data to draw conclusions on than there will be later, so any medium-sized effect that adds 20k extra samples will have a larger effect now than later.
Worst are the ones where he number is the number of times some random event happened. In that case there's a decent chance the difference is less than twice the square root, so assuming a Poisson distribution you know the difference is insignificant.
Few people bothered to look at the probability distributions the forecasters published which showed decent probabilities for landslide wins in either direction.
Next time you're doing something that isn't a professional STEM job, see how far you can get through your day without adding or multiplying.
Unless you're totting up your score in a board game or something of that ilk, you'll be amazed at how accommodating our society is to people who can't add or multiply.
Sure, when you're in the supermarket you can add up your purchases as you shop, if you want to. But if you don't want to, you can just buy about the same things every week for about the same price. Or keep a rough total of the big items. Or you can put things back once you see the total at the till. Or you can 'click and collect' to know exactly what the bill will be.
You don't see mainstream discussion of variance because 90% of the population don't know WTF a variance is.
Whatever pays the bill I suppose.