We need to invest in defense not in AI.
Genuinely - this is a one way bet for the Russians, smash up Estonia and extort the Germans, spend the money on more guns and then kill all the Poles.
Coming to a continent near you soon!
Yes: if Germany acts as a serious and honest partner in defence.
No: if Germany refuses to be a responsible security player and swings back to Russia as soon as it can. If Germany reopens the gas pipelines and throws the balts to the wolves I think that they may find that when they need help, there will be no help.
Also the UK and France have very limited nuclear capability. Yes, it's really helpful in the context of the Nato alliance. The uncertainty that the european weapons adds into any calculus of escalation really enhances the overall deterrent. Once the USA is out of the picture there is no escalation ladder, it's national extinction (and)or bust. Very unstable, untenable. I see no evidence at all of this position being altered or updated. If Germany could depend on France or the UK in a nuclear blackmail scenario then I would expect (at the least) a crash tactical nuclear weapon program to be up and running in either one or both. I also think that a four vessel continuous deterrence capability is inadequate, so I would expect much more co-ordination between France and the UK on the at sea element and/or a shift to five+ vessels.
I see none of this - the opposite in fact.
It's been very important to the Nato stance to have multiple nuclear armed states, it made Soviet calculations extremely difficult. With the USA leaving the alliance I think that either a joint Euro bomb needs to be developed or Germany needs to acquire one. Perhaps a polite fiction (continuing the current one by the USA) of France providing nukes for German, Dutch, Danish and Polish war planes could be used.
There is no threat from Russia, as Ukraine certainly isn't part of EU and Russia has never shown hostility to EU, except in retaliation from EU hostile acts.
So I would agree we need to become capable of defending ourselves, but to do so we should very quickly normalize and reestablish friendly relations with Russia and China, then make ourselves economically independent from the USA, ask them to remove all of their military bases from EU, and start to produce our own weapons.
In some parallel reality, perhaps it's so. In this world, Russia has been remarkably hostile for a very long time, to the point where the entire 1300 km border between Finland and Russia - except for one crossing for freight trains - remains closed since 2023, because Russia ferried migrants from the Middle East and Africa to the Artic circle and forced them to cross the border into Finland to destabilize the country.[1]
This kind of hybrid attack was launched on even a larger scale against Poland, by Belarus, with Russian support once again.[2][3]
Not to mention smaller acts such as desecration of memorial sites in Latvia[4], vandalizing the car of Estonian interior minister[5], and smuggling incendiary devices on board of DHL cargo planes[6].
Greenland belongs to Denmark, and just today, Danish intelligence (FE) issued a new threat assessment[7]:
According to FE, Russia is undergoing significant military reforms aimed not only at sustaining operations in Ukraine but also at preparing for potential engagements with NATO countries. /---/ While the report does not conclude that a large-scale war in Europe is inevitable, it warns that such a scenario is increasingly plausible if NATO does not reinforce its military posture. The findings indicate that European countries must accelerate their defence efforts to prevent Russia from exploiting weaknesses in the alliance.
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93European_Union...
[3] https://www.dw.com/en/poland-baltics-step-up-border-controls...
[4] https://vdd.gov.lv/en/news/press-releases/vdd-requests-crimi...
[5] https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-detains-10-russians-suspected-...
Oh, you mean the monument to nazi collaborators?
All of this happened after the EU started sending weapons to Ukraine for the purpose of killing Russians, sanctioning Russia heavily, freezed $300 billions in assets, not to mention the destruction of northstream 2. Reciprocal hostility is perfectly normal.
None of these actions is severe enough that we can't establish friendly relations again, to our mutual benefit.
> Greenland belongs to Denmark, and just today, Danish intelligence (FE) issued a new threat assessment[7]:
DUH. They're facing the collective military industry and intelligence of NATO in Ukraine, there have been multiple threats from France and UK of sending their troops in Ukraine, prominent EU officials have been publicly talking about balkanizing Russia and you expect Russia to not prepare to face those threats? They'd be stupid not do it.
This is ridiculous. It's like poking a bees nests and then complaining about their aggressiveness when they react. How about you stop poking first?
No. But name-calling everything a "nazi" does not surprise me one bit. To hardcore Russian nationalists, the mere existence of Latvian nation and state is "nazism". Since they were kicked out in the early 1990s, they've promised to return, murder everyone who opposes them, root out Latvian people and culture, and make Latvia theirs. Such revenge fantasies have been a common theme on Russian state media for decades.
> All of this happened after the EU started sending weapons to Ukraine for the purpose of killing Russians, sanctioning Russia heavily, freezed $300 billions in assets, not to mention the destruction of northstream 2. Reciprocal hostility is perfectly normal.
I expected you to say this - as an indication that you don't know what you are talking about.
The hybrid attack against Poland started in 2021, a year before the latest Russian invasion of Ukraine and everything that followed it. The long chain of such hostile border violations, including extreme examples such as the attacks on Lithuanian border guards and their execution[1], goes back to early 1990s.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_OMON_assaults_on_Lithua...
They were literally fighting together with the Germans against the USSR. Learn your history before making audacious claims.
For your other points, sorry but you don't get to escalate the conversation with new arguments without first answering to all of mine.
BTW 2021 is 7 years after the western backed coup (maidan). Hostilities had been going on for a while.
I am very upset btw, as this kind of idiotic and aggressive foreign policy we pursued brought us closer than ever to WWIII, caused millions of unnecessary deaths, worsened our (Europeans) quality of life, damaged our industry, put us in a very vulnerable geopolitical position, etc.
> Who are you, a Russian agent?
The more you speak, the more you sound like a fascist.
> Yanukovich was democratically elected.
Putin and Lukashenko are also „democratically elected”.
I am not going to attempt discussing the rest of your argument. You repeat the after Trump that millions of people died (a lot of people died but „millions” if factually incorrect), you blame the problems of EU on EU not going to bed with a dictator… and you’re upset with EU not bending to a dictator. I’m out of this discussion with you.
I was raised in 1980s Poland. I remember the soviet mir. Just the imagination of it coming back makes me sick.
> I was raised in 1980s Poland
I couldn't care less about your memories of USSR. I wouldn't destroy my quality of life and put my family at a risk of WWIII just because of the fears of someone who sounds like a fascist.
> Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/ FASH-iz-əm) is a far-right, authoritarian, and ultranationalist political ideology and movement,[1][2][3] characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation or race, and strong regimentation of society and the economy.[2][3] Opposed to anarchism, democracy, pluralism, egalitarianism, liberalism, socialism, and Marxism,[4][5] fascism is at the far right of the traditional left–right spectrum.[6][5][7]
I’m far from it. But it sounds like Putin’s Russia, which you appear to be craving for. Here’s a tip for you. If you’re missing the mir, move to Russia.
Perhaps you should learn a thing or two yourself before making such remarks.
In the first two years of the WWII, Germany and the USSR were allied. They divided Europe among themselves with the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact[1] on the eve of the invasion of Poland, and then invaded Poland from both sides, and held a joint parade when both forces met in the middle of Poland. Other invasions (Finland, France, Denmark, etc) soon followed.
The same secret agreement with Hitler left Latvia to the USSR. After the fall of Poland, USSR started issuing a series of ultimatums against Latvia, which culminated with the Soviet invasion and occupation of Latvia. Independent Latvia ceased to exist in June 1940[3], and the independence was not restored until 1991. Latvia as a state was not fighting together or against anyone because it simply didn't exist 1940-1991. Latvia was under Soviet military occupation 1940-1941, then under German 1941-1944, and then again under Soviet occupation 1944-1991.
One of the excuses for the initial Soviet invasion in 1940 was that Latvia was too sympathetic of the plight of Polish people and too unfriendly with the Soviet ally, Germany. :)
The Soviet-German alliance is best illustrated by the frequency of the word "facism" in the leading Soviet newspaper Pravda: https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/13chr5f/mentions_of... In August 1939, they sign the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. In June 1941, the war between them breaks out. During the two years from mid-1939 to mid-1941, they coordinated their attacks and destroyed the independence of not only Latvia, but many other European countries too, until there was no-one else left between Berlin and Moscow.
To this day, this is big source of tensions between Russia and its European neighbors, because Russia refuses to acknowledge its role in the first two years of the war. Present-day accusations of "nazism" coming from Putin's totalitarian dictatorship against modern European democracies are just pathethic attempts to distract from its own aggression, and serve as further examples of hostility instead of the path of reconciliation that Germany took.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pac...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_military...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_occupation_of_Latvia_in...
> BTW 2021 is 7 years after the western backed coup (maidan). Hostilities had been going on for a while.
There was no coup in Ukraine, it's just another long debunked Russian talking point that lacks any substance. I've explained it here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42986476
The closest thing Ukraine ever had to a foreign coup is constant Russian meddling with Ukraine's internal affairs. The best example of this is the 2004 poisioning of Ukrainian president. The before and after pictures, taken only a few months apart, tell the story of what a friendly neighbor Russia has been for the longest time: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-43611547
Second, it’s not clear who destroyed NS2. It could have been Russia, Ukraine, or the US. Everyone has different theories but there’s no smoking gun pointing at anyone.
You have been already told that but the hybrid war on Polish-Belarusian border started in 2021. Today they’re fighting a war with troops from North Korea.
Russia is the only remaining nation on the Eurasian plate stuck mentally in the WW2 phase and crying out loud that the job hasn’t been finished in 1945. And I agree with this statement… Allies should have finished the job by going forward with Operation Unthinkable. We’d all save ourselves decades of struggles on this continent.
Calm your horses.
> First of all, it’s Russia who invaded Ukraine, not the other way around.
Yes, and we couped Ukraine before that.
> Weapons are sent to Ukraine so Ukraine can defend itself against the invasion. That Russians are killed from these weapons, duh…
You seem to be conveniently forgetting the fact that Ukraine was neither in EU nor NATO, nor in any military alliance with a western country. Thus sending weapons to Ukraine is a direct act of hostility to Russia.
Imagine what would've happened if Russia aided Afghanistan or Iraq with weapons and intelligence when the US invaded. Be intellectually honest.
And defense spending is a must, how in 2025 they could NOT invest easily 5% of GDP into security is beyond me, thats not a bad requirement from trump actually (if some time is given to reshuffle budgets). There are threats from all sides - one genocidal dictator on our borders repeatedly keeps stating how he will wipe out few hundreds of millions with atomic bombs aimed at our cities. Inner threats with Hungary and Slovakia now.
Then there are global threats, be it China or maybe even US if trade wars will go on 100%, and who knows what Turkey actually wants. Yet Leyden's blind focus on green deal when whole world literally abandoned it, killing our industries while making 0 difference long term is... I don't have a nice word for it. If there is actually some sound logic behind those moves she failed remarkably with communicating them to literally everybody.
NATO has been treated as a free ride by Europe.
They were supposed to invest a certain % of their GDP each year in their defense spending but because the US was always there as backstop, they basically never did.
Now a lot of countries in the EU have to play catch up and make up the under investment of the last 20 years which will take many years and even possibly decades before it is reversed.
Also Macron is on his way out and the most likely politician to come after him is from the far right. His voice and power is waning and since he has lost the majority in the assembly, he is a lame duck with very little power to change things.
Now we have a weak army in the EU, if Russia invades one of our friends, then the war will be over in two days because France, Germany, USA will do their usual "we condemn blablabla, we send you prayers and sympathy", but there would be no long-lasting war.
A bit similar to Ukraine, it's a half-assed initiative, drowning billions of USD, but not efficient enough.
If the answer had been much stronger, it would have worked, but now we get the worst of the two options (doing nothing, or going all-in).
Also not to forget, that at the end of the rifle, it's not people saving their house, it's about protecting a system that supports the wealth of politics.
The main difference for the invaded people would be to whom they pay taxes, and ironically, could now be facing sanctions from their supposed friends (like the living folks in Crimea, who got punished by US/EU; punished because they have been invaded and victims of a war).
In the second case, if EU defense is increased moderately (like currently plans), war would still breakout but it may drag for longer, and casualties without increasing odds of winning.
The third case, where EU alone without the US is significantly stronger than China, Russia and North Korea, it's nice but I don't see it happening.
Like you said, Macron is likely going to be replaced with pro-Russian Le Pen / Zemmour-like.
The world is getting dangerous.
Ever wondered why eastern part of EU is so vastly different to western EU regarding mentality? Why east has corruption as BAU at all levels, is a bit nihilistic in world view, and certainly doesn't trust at all some centralized Brussel control? It wasn't nearly as bad right after WWII. But we had it all from them, oppression, absolute lack of freedom on North Korea level, political executions, people gone to gulags or uranium mines with basically no ticket back for the horrible crimes of ie fighting nazis as allied pilots in Britain. The damage to whole nations is still felt these days, countries being shadows of their potential, natural resources literally stolen without any payment back (former Czechoslovakia's massive uranium deposits as a random example), especially if you compare them to places 'just across the fence' which experienced freedom, market economy and ie weren't forced to reject Marshall plan.
Russia has absolutely nothing good to offer to any democratic country which was true 100 years ago and is still the fact now, just a spiral downfall into mediocrity and further, rampart corruption and theft and rule of stronger compared to rule of law. Basically a mafia state, they just can't create anything better.
France population is never going to war, Germany also, Italy also, etc, to me it sounds like something that Russia may see as an opportunity.
The best in this situation (like it was with the soviets situation you described) is to prepare a plan to not be stuck in the cross-fires, because it's not the politicians in their plushy beds in Brussels or in Moscow that are suffering.
We in western Europe (where I moved just to clarify) are closely aligned with US values and way of life, which russian elite sees as direct attack on their comfy stealy mafia way of life and existential threat. What general russian population thinks is unfortunately irrelevant here, it doesn't manifest in anything concerning rest of the world.
Also look at end of Soviet union - every single member state ran the fuck away from russians with 99.99% speed of light, and will do just about anything to resist being forcefully merged back, including Belarus with lukashenko, or Kazachstan with quite recent demonstrations and subsequent shooting of protesters also helped by russian special forces (friend of ours from there witnessed it firsthand, executions on spot of cca 2,500 protesters one after another, whomever they caught in the streets). They know darn well what they reject and fear, no 'panslav' bullshit made up lies is ever changing that.
Don't think for a second that one can be some really impartial and respected 3rd side, even ultra-neutral Swiss are now much more aligned with west than east (politically, values, but also militarily - check whether their guns work with NATO ammo or russian ones - thats 101 of waging a war and picking up side well before that). There are cca impartial sides out there, but not in Europe or anywhere else near russia.
/rant, I could go on like that for a very long time
Comparing the enterprise value of the top 10 companies in Europe versus the U.S provides a poor insight into the actual health of AI research as opposed to capital generation. Both DeepMind and Featurespace are European startups for example.