Tesla sales dropped 60% in Germany
electrek.co
electrek.co
So it'll be interesting to see what happens when the new Model Y is launched and how much they retake of this lost market share. My guess is, some, but not nearly all of it. People held their noses and bought the Tesla when they were at a huge (interest rate) discount. Tesla obviously can't give people long sub 1% loans and make a profit in 2025.
For me personally (in Europe, looking for a new EV this year) I'd be happy to pay more north of a $10k premium to not have the car that says Tesla on it.
Also keep in mind that many European countries entered a recession over the past year. Also keep in mind that the cost of electricity has tripled since Putin attacked Ukraine.
The partisan types will ascribe Tesla's sales fall to Musk's politics, but I suspect that's actually a small effect compared to some of the broader market dynamics.
[1] https://electrek.co/2025/02/06/tesla-sales-crash-in-another-...
I think this is not the right way to look at it. Essentially, Tesla sells the car for a price that is higher than the sum of all the input costs (the margin). Say this margin is around $10k per car. If the factories have more inventory, they could give customers a $5k discount, but they could also sell it for the full price but give a sub 1% loan. They probably loan that money for about 3 to 5%. So they only take a hit of a few procent for 2 years meaning $60k * 0.04 * 0.04 = $4800. My point is that a low percentage loan is essentially the same as discount on the purchase price.
Do these continues price decreases mean that things look dire? Based on solely this information, not necessarily. Battery costs are a large part of the cost of the car, and battery costs are consistently coming down. This saves a few thousand dollars per year. So I expect prices to come down each year. That fact alone is not a problem.
Having said that, we know that Tesla's margins have consistently come down for the last 3 years, and we know that Chinese cars become more competitive each year. So things aren't looking great. But again, price declines are expected and not necessarily a problem. I would say market share is the most important metric to look at.
And that's expensive.
Yup, and I don’t care. I liked the brand better without the drama queen.
> I guess a great trick would be for a CEO to have a large social media presence but still side step culture war issues?
Most CEO's these days do, yes. Maybe not "large" but a noticeable precense.
given America these days: what's the difference? Elon bought the election for much cheaper than Twitter.
Model 3 272
Model S 13
Model X 13
Model Y 979
∑ 1277
For comparison the data for January 2024: Model 3 695
Model S 31
Model X 33
Model Y 2393
∑ 3152
Model Y in both Januaries is still a multiple of ~ 3.5 of the Model 3.Your theory, that people were waiting for the MY refresh doesn’t seem likely. According to my experience most people aren’t as much informed of the inside baseball when a new model arrives. Nerd stuff.
Edit, Sources, the F10 Excel spreadsheets here:
2025: https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon...
2024: https://www.kba.de/DE/Statistik/Fahrzeuge/Neuzulassungen/Mon...
That law is changing though: The taxation applies only to cars up to €60k list price (most Teslas exceed that by now, even Model 3s with some extras), and as electricity prices have been soaring, charging the EV got really expensive.
Adding to that, interest rates have been increasing in 2022 for the first time in a long time. This means that leasing rates and financing rates skyrocketed. So as another commenter wrote: Buying a new car is one of the least worries of Germans at the moment.
For those who might not be up to date on that, parent refers to Musk's nazi salute: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/R_6dVlz6mug
Now he's taken over a foreign government to pursue overly fascist goals, being seen in public in a new Tesla is just not something I can consider.
Doing this in Germany would be even more inconceivable.
I can't imagine this is an unusual way to feel.
Tesla fell from 14% of the market to 4% [1]
[0]: https://www.adac.de/news/neuzulassungen-kba/
[1]: https://www.focus.de/auto/elektroauto/starker-start-ins-neue...
If the company became unprofitable to the point of possible bankruptcy, that's a different story.
But like, Tesla almost has the best car available on the market anywhere. Almost.
They could wipe the floor of any of the existing incumbents. Could.
There is some justification for that number, based on the theory that Tesla is an energy and AI company with a side hustle in automobiles. But that is pure conjecture that only receives market support because Elon is at the helm.
At some point, that facade is going to collapse. Every time I point this out, I get jumped by a bunch of Tesla fanboys, $TSLA holders and the usual associated crowd.
So, I'm going to list some major problems with Tesla, in brief summaries of no particular order
1) FSD is a half truth. I am genuinely impressed with the progress they've made and I think Tesla is one of the leaders in the field. HOWEVER: their approach to risk (laying it on the owners), their lack of robotaxi operations center, and even the hardware in the vehicles not being capable for true FSD and remote monitoring, means that all Tesla vehicles on the road today will NEVER be FSD/RoboTaxi capable without: major hardware upgrades (expensive per vehicle), substantial backend upgrades for live support (time consuming), and serious hiring of live support (they've gotten started but this will completely change the math on OpEx). [0]
2) They have huge risk around new battery technologies. This has become a global race. If someone (such as Toyota) introduces a genuine leapfrog (which they seem to be conservatively teasing in the usual Japanese way with solid state batteries), then Tesla is in some serious shit. Tesla's investing heavily in R&D, so I think they're probably not screwed on this point, but it will be a major point of contention for them in the near future.
3) Public opinion: Elon has decided to make himself the Conservative of the Year. I, personally am not a conservative, but it doesn't take a genius to realize that he's polarizing the addressable market for a mass market consumer product. This is increasingly true outside of the US.
4) Upper limits of addressable markets, pending infra: charging infra is getting better, but the simple fact is that they're reaching the point of diminishing returns. The end goal is probably something like be an L2 charger (ideally better) at every parking meter and a farm of them in every WalMart parking lot. Much progress is being made, but it will still be many years before it's where electric cars are feasible for - let's say - 80% of the US domestic market. NACS went a long way in alleviating this.
5) Competition from China: China is deeply incentivized by market forces to build electric cars (they do not have domestic oil). Their domestic market is huge and economies of scale kick in even for relatively niche products. They are already eating at the low end of the electric car market. They are also hungry and see designing beautiful and good things as a matter of national pride[1].
[0] While we're at it, Alphabet has invested heavily in companies doing 5g rollouts - which is a requirement for a RoboTaxi in my opinion. Elon seems to be short sighted in his apparent belief that 5g isn't needed, nor a vision hw update, and they can really build a 0-intervention RoboTaxi. Don't get me started on his refusal to include LIDAR. I wish him the best of luck.
[1] I have a lot of complaints about how China and Chinese industry operates, at a moral level. But one must also recognize that as they're late to the table, they are at a disadvantage and they know it. A lot of the things they do that offend and disgruntle western tech people - especially around IP - are frankly, perfectly rational (even if I personally don't like it). The DeepSeek leader Liang Wenfeng put his attitude around China's behavior in a very refreshing manor, which really humanizes a group of people that many like to denigrate:
We believe that with economic development, China must gradually transition from being a beneficiary to a contributor, rather than continuing to ride on the coattails of others. Over the past 30 years of the IT revolution, we barely participated in core tech innovation.We’ve grown accustomed to Moore’s Law “falling from the sky”—waiting 18 months for better hardware and software. Scaling Law is treated similarly. However, these advancements are the result of generations of relentless effort by Western-led technology communities. Because we haven’t been actively involved in this process, we’ve come to overlook its significance.
Anything less is adaptive cruise control + lane assist (keep & change), no matter how fancy the marketing wrapping on it. "Safety-critical interventions" WTF is that, car trying to kill you and your family and you fighting its bad decisions and for now winning over? The amount they would have to pay me for such alpha-testing to ever drive such vehicle is non-trivial even for tesla.
Yes, I’m aware it’s supposed to be monitored.
Btw I love the implication in your line of questioning that I haven’t experienced fsd by demanding I give my own personal anecdotes
So here’s three! The last time I experienced FSD was during the December 2024 free trial (12.5 I believe). On one trip, it unsafely botched a merge on Market Street in San Francsico by the Castro (ran out of room and faulted ) Actually, we tried that route because a few years ago, we’d had it completely fuck up by trying to navigate the wrong way down the road. So I supposed that’s an improvement.
Later that week, FSD kept having trouble with a freeway off-ramp around San Mateo and when we did a go around, it tried to pull us into a dedicated bus lane. Well, it did pull through and get to the destination.
And lastly, it consistently manages to navigate into my parking garage and then immediately drive out the other exit.
So there’s your anecdotes. At least we didn’t slam head on into a lamp post.
Anyway, I can only say that I've had an impressively good experience with FSD, which I have put a lot of hours into. But I have noticed the same problem that you have with bus lanes. I disable it when I enter parking garages.
And yet, I described you in my original post :)
> Every time I point this out, I get jumped by a bunch of Tesla fanboys, $TSLA holders and the usual associated crowd.
You have no basis to accuse me of any of that based on my single question to you. I disagree with you. I politely asked for your personal experience, which differs somewhat from mine. You are being rude.
You get the amount of courtesy from me that you deserve.
To give you an idea: at the European level, the group of LePen and Meloni refuses to work with them because they are to extreme. Many regional branches of AfD are under surveillance for strong suspicion of fascist activities. One of their most prominent politicians sued someone for defamation for calling him fascist. The court decided that this was not defamatory because it was in fact true.
Our conservatives are so far refusing to cooperate at all with the AfD.
So Musk is not "conservative of the year" he is a supporter of certified fascists.
While I agree, he seems to be trying for that title with these stunts. And in his mind, he might think that he is succeeding.
(In the US, and to some extent the UK, 'conservative', in political terms, is now usually used to refer to radical far-right policies.)
IMHO, it consists of exactly one proposition.
But lately people have been more blatantly making a MAGA distinction from Republicans and MAGA is pretty much your AfD party in a nutshell. Except they are running the show in America for at least 2 more years.
You say that in future tense. But we also now believe that steep tariffs on Chinese cars are necessary lest they "contribute" too much, too advanced, too cheaply and destroy domestic industries that can't keep up any more.
The EU, and current and previous US administrations believe this.
> new battery technologies. This has become a global race.
"Global" ? One country is far ahead here and again it's China e.g.:
"Can anyone challenge China’s EV battery dominance?" https://www.ft.com/content/1f95d204-ea6a-4cf3-b66a-952362e80...
"Ford Chief Says China Leads US By 10 Years In EV Batteries" https://www.carscoops.com/2025/02/fords-ceo-says-china-is-10...
And yes i have a lot of thoughts about that and it is a substantial danger to tesla
Ah right. Interesting that this is the view of a Chinese technologist working in China.
And also that seems be aimed more at DeepSeek's LLM software and the tech business, than it is at electric vehicles. The second technology is IMHO far more beneficial.
That's not really true these days and hence part of the grift. Early Tesla was only profitable because they were first to market and had huge subsidies to take advantadge of. It's no coincidence that Musk started moving right as Trump took his first office and was clearly antagonizing EV tax credits (as he does now).
Meanwhile, in the 2020's TSLA isn't profitable from cars. It's from BTC and some weird loophole I don't fully understand letting them amortize that value for multiple years.
Nothing I said was really opinion here. How about you cite how they excluded the crypto and got 20% profit margins if you're going to simply ask for sources and call me biased? I don't exactly trust Hollywood accounting knowing the above story.
However monthly Tesla numbers has historically had a high month-to-month variance, and they had very good numbers at the end of last year[2].
So at least here I wouldn't say we're seeing a trend just yet.
[1]: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/tesla-salget-stupte-i-norge-i-jan...
[2]: https://www.tek.no/nyheter/nyhet/i/4BV7LE/bilsalget-ny-tesla...
As a Tesla owner myself, it makes me very uncomfortable to think my car is remotely associated with a hate group. I wouldn't buy one today nor do I recommend it to others.
Politically, I'm fairly left wing, concerned about democracy and climate change. Elon Musk's politics is easily enough to make sure I'd never purchase anything he's associated with.
That said, for buying an EV, tradional car manufacturers have mostly caught up with where Tesla is now, as a European buyer, I could get a high quality EV much cheaper from longer established brands with more effecient supply chains.
Seems pretty tricky to try and untangle those two effects.
Elon's maternal grandfather died when he was young but apparently his maternal grandmother had a great influence on him and was likely a fellow traveller living in a house that celebrated all things Nazi.
The 2023 to 2024 year-on-year decline was 1% [1]. Compared to that, a 60% drop for a single brand is catastrophic. (And wonderful in this case)
[1] https://www.best-selling-cars.com/germany/2024-full-year-ger...
"German road traffic agency KBA’s website on Wednesday showed the number of newly registered Tesla cars fell 59.5% to 1,277 in January, while the overall German market was down just 2.8% at slightly more than 207,000 vehicles during the month."
Didn't verify it personally, but if you claim something contrary to TFA, a source would be nice.
Electricity prices.
https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Fahrzeugzula...
https://www.kba.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Fahrzeugzula...
https://fortune.com/2025/01/06/germanys-ev-sales-crash-elect...
The overall slump in electric car sales in Germany saw battery-powered vehicles lose market share relative to traditional combustion engines and hybrid cars. Electric cars made up 13.5 percent of sales in 2024, down from 18.4 percent in the previous year.6 Jan 2025
Suddenly anyone who supports Musk will buy one when they otherwise wouldn't.
But to the extent that it does happen, it seems explicable with reference to the behaviour of children when told not to do something. Some evidently never grew out of it.
The idea makes sense, but these days people make it so blatant. So the merchant can make it feel more like a grift than simply trying to appeal to an audience.
But, honestly, if that is the end result; Trump supporters buying more electric cars, Id call that a win.