I wonder about this too - and also wonder what the difference of order is between the historical shifts you mention and the one we're seeing now (or will see soon).

Is it 10 times the "abstracting away complexity and understanding"? 100, 1000, [...]?

This seems important.

There must be some threshold beyond which (assuming most new developers are learning using these tools) fundamental ability to understand how the machine works and thus ability to "dive in and figure things out" when something goes wrong is pretty much completely lost.