There probably is a faction inside the tent who if asked, would agree a rational conversation about events in China was possible. About many things. Tiananmen was 36 years ago. Those students are senior people now. You think nobody knows what happened? Please.
But, the party system is riven by factions, soft and hard, expansive and inward-looking, militaristic and pacific, and no serious conversation about China exists which doesn't ultimately both invite opening tensions between factions, and exacerbating them by comparisons with the west.
I personally believe nobody who lives in China lacks capacity to discuss it rationally. What they lack is the desire across the cost/benefit gap.
It's like asking prelates to discuss Vatican politics: it doesn't help them, or really anyone. Oh, certainly, sunlight on everything. But expecting the insiders to suddenly do a reveal? Don't be silly. What priests actually think about abortion, women's role in the church is not the point: the system is predicated on a certain status quo.
What I find interesting is to ask how much it refuses, if you use the version available to the bureaucracy: state planning will fuck up even worse if its founded on lies, which feed hallucinations. They actually need fundamental ground truths, to use an LLM internally. Otherwise they will drift from reality very quickly.
God help us all if it strategises a first strike move. It'd bad enough the war factions are parading their cosplay fleets around Taiwan. Rivers of blood on both sides if that goes live.
The danger point is when Xi dies. I asked le chat. The answer is depressingly aligned with what I said above, before asking.
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Q: What global risks emerge from chinas president Xi dying? Please give examples of things which may happen regarding trade, economics and taiwan
A: The death of Chinese President Xi Jinping could have significant global implications, particularly in the realms of trade, economics, and geopolitical stability, especially concerning Taiwan.
### Trade and Economics 1. *Trade Disruptions*: Xi's death could lead to political instability in China, which might disrupt global trade. China is a major player in international trade, and any internal turmoil could affect supply chains and trade agreements. For instance, China's trade retaliation against the U.S. has already carried warnings of worse economic conflicts to come.
2. *Economic Uncertainty*: The Chinese economy has been a driving force globally, and Xi's leadership has been instrumental in shaping economic policies. His absence could lead to policy shifts or a power vacuum, causing economic uncertainty. China's efforts to reshape its economy, such as pouring money into manufacturing, could trigger new trade wars if not managed carefully.
3. *Market Volatility*: Financial markets might react negatively to the news, leading to volatility and potential sell-offs. Investors could become cautious about investing in China due to the political and economic uncertainties.
### Taiwan 1. *Increased Tensions*: Xi has been a strong proponent of reunifying Taiwan with mainland China. His death could embolden hardliners within the Chinese Communist Party to take more aggressive actions towards Taiwan, potentially leading to military conflict.
2. *Power Struggle*: The succession process in China is not transparent, and Xi's death could lead to a power struggle within the party. This internal conflict could make the situation with Taiwan even more unpredictable. Xi's successor might feel the need to assert their authority by taking a hardline stance on Taiwan.
3. *International Response*: The international community, particularly the United States, would be closely watching China's actions towards Taiwan. Any aggressive moves could lead to a stronger response from the U.S. and its allies, potentially escalating tensions in the region.
4. *Economic Impact on Taiwan*: Taiwan is a crucial player in the global semiconductor industry. Any disruption in the status quo could have significant economic repercussions, affecting global supply chains for technology products.
In summary, the death of Xi Jinping could lead to significant global risks, including trade disruptions, economic uncertainty, increased tensions with Taiwan, and potential military conflict. The international community would need to navigate these challenges carefully to maintain regional stability and economic prosperity.
Read The People's Republic of Amnesia. You might be surprised by how little most people, especially young people, know, and the extent to which history has been effectively rewritten.
It is true younger people may have less overt knowledge of this, but I am old, and I mainly spend time with older Chinese, people who would have been postgraduate students or early career academics in '89. Some of them have memories of being sent to the countryside in prior times, a cohort of phenomenally skilled, motivated mature students passed through the Chinese tertiary educational system when things normalised.
The party and government, senior leadership across state enterprises, are not under 30. That's why I talked to how institutional practices using AI like this interest me: the recipients have finely tuned bullshit filters, and state planning based off lies don't last very long.
But you make a good point: I probably overstate how widespread a certain cynical self interested cone of silence based on realism exists.
That is certainly true: none of them have forgotten about 1989 and they never will. Neither will many people (including some of my family and friends) in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and elsewhere. Inside the mainland, though, it's a very different story, or at least, that's my impression both from the book I mentioned and some other sources.