I suspect once I have sufficient insulation and air sealing, and condensing gas hydronic heat for when the exterior temperature drops below 5°F (COP 2.0) the overall system will be very cost effective month to month. Although the upfront cost is nontrivial, so it's a payback period measured in decades.
I also augment with a wood burning stove.
For new construction that's properly air sealed and insulated, heat pumps with resistive baseboard backup would probably be sufficient.