Tesla Is Alienating the People It Needs Most: Study | Hacker News Reader

Tesla Is Alienating the People It Needs Most: Study

insideevs.com

66 pointszfg130 comments

I had pre-ordered a Model 3 way back (ended up not buying it since they didn't come out with the "cheap version" until years later) and was planning to eventually get a Tesla after my ICE car taps out.

Then it first slowly (never criticizing China or Russia), then quickly (making fun of Ukraine, going full MAGA) and eventually full steam (promoting Germany's anti-democratic far right AfD, the salute) it dawned on me that Elon doesn't give a damn about democracy (he is in fact throwing all his weight behind undermining it across the West).

I care a lot about it, even if it may mean slower progress in some aspects (say compared to China); a system for non-violent regime change is a precious, happy accident of history that's worthwhile defending.

Not buying a Tesla is the least I can do.

Democrats either already own EV's or will buy EV's anyway. The open question is does EV adoption go up among Republicans. I think it will, though I don't know to what extent.

In general, I find surveys or self-reported data to be poor predictors of behavior.

There are other EVs on the market. Much more reliable ones too. I’m actually amazed they’ve managed to pull off being the least reliable used car, given that the “competitors” have a lot more moving parts:

https://en.cebia.com/detailArticle/the-most-and-least-reliab...

> Democrats [...] will buy EV's anyway

Tesla competitors. Giving fuel to the broader market, decreasing Tesla's market share, and calling into question the bull case for Tesla's highly inflated P/E ratio.

We will see! I think Tesla will be just fine, they keep cutting manufacturing costs and therefore prices.

Maybe in the long run but right now their stock is tanking.

Trump seems to be somewhat anti-EV (or, at least, doesn't want to push them in the same way Biden did), so it wouldn't surprise me if Republicans took their cues from him and stayed away.

e.g. https://www.npr.org/2025/01/30/nx-s1-5272749/donald-trump-ev...

https://www.pewresearch.org/?attachment_id=179415 (draw your attention to the center of the graphic, Republican vs Democrat, as it relates to who would consider purchasing an EV)

About 3 in 10 Americans would seriously consider buying an electric vehicle - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/27/about-3-i... - June 27, 2024

A lot has happened politically since June 2024 when it comes to Elon Musk.

If the thought is this is more favorable for the Tesla brand based on Elon’s actions, I argue no. Republicans, based on the data, were not enthusiastic to begin with for EVs (77% indicating they were not likely to buy an EV). Also, based on the income and wealth data for right leaning households, I would be cautious to assume they have the purchasing power for what Tesla’s market segment offers.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/643334/ownership-ticks-fewer-no...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-u-s-median-income-in...

I think you are likely correct. Marketing for Green can only get you so far, next marketing push is Patriotism. I don’t like Musk, but he is a marketing genius of this era.

How is Nazi salute Patriotism?

My point was it can be marketed as Patriotism, and I'm sure enough number of targeted audience will buy that bs.

I think the myth of Elon's genius has been utterly shattered by the Path of Exile 2 debacle. Turns out faking it until you make it can take you all the way to the top.

Why say Democrats? I know plenty of Republicans that feel that way.

Putting people in neat boxes is a major reason that Trump is president.

People are more alike than different. All it takes is the majority of people to wake up and say "no thanks, this is too crazy"

It was more like “No thanks, I vote for crazy.” I swing right on a lot of things (I voted against democrats in local/state races), but I couldn’t fathom how anyone would see a second trump term as anything more than the chaotic mess the last one was.

Tesla, as a car company, keeps botching basic car company stuff. Reliability. Parts. Repair. Pricing. New models.

- The Model 3 came out in 2017, which was a while back. The Model S did get a mid-cycle refresh.

- The Cybertruck has been a dud. Sales are way down.[1] Rivian apparently outsells it.

- By now, Tesla's Fake Self Driving isn't fooling anybody, now that people have seen Waymo really doing it.

- Tesla is behind in batteries. They can now make round lithium-ion cells, the previous generation of technology. The current generation is more like BYD's "blade" battery, packaged up in rectangular modules. The next generation is fully solid state batteries, which CATL, BYD, Toyota, and Samsung are spending billions to make work. Tesla does not seem to be active in that area, beyond lab efforts.

- China is getting rather good at making electric cars cheaply. It's not all labor cost. It's partly better design. BYD's "e-axle" is a unit with wheels, axles, differential, and motor. Plugs into a power electronics box and a battery. Plug in a CANbus cable to the controls and go. Simplifies manufacturing.

- Tesla has repeatedly failed to get their costs down. Sales are down. Profits are down.

- The CEO is not devoting full time to the job.

These are all classic car-company mismanagement problems. There are points in GM, Chrysler, and VW history like that.

Tesla likes to pretend they are a special snowflake, but they haven't been that for over a decade.

[1] https://electrek.co/2025/01/02/tesla-cybertruck-sales-are-di...

> The Model 3 came out in 2017, which was a while back. The Model S did get a mid-cycle refresh.

The Model 3 got a refresh last year

> Tesla is behind in batteries. They can now make round lithium-ion cells, the previous generation of technology. The current generation is more like BYD's "blade" battery, packaged up in rectangular modules.

Tesla uses other people’s (usually Panasonic[1]) batteries, they manufacture them, but don’t develop them on their own. In China and Europe, they even use BYD’s blade batteries.[2]

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/panaso...

[2] https://carnewschina.com/2023/05/22/first-tesla-model-y-with...

Musk just announced Tesla will have self-driving Real Soon Now. Again.[1]

"Teslas will be in the wild, with no one in them, in June in Austin," Musk said. "This is not some far-off mythical situation. It's literally five, six months away."

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicolekobie/2025/02/05/another-...

Oh no doubt that’s not coming to people in the next 5-10 years.

They’ll release whatever half baked thing they have in Austin, because Musk controls the government now and then when it kills a couple of people, they’ll roll it back with no consequences.

At this point, it’s more likely that AGI will emerge first and be able to drive on its own than FSD unsupervised being ready.

In short, tesla is not viewed as favorably as other car companies. And in the end, what they offer isn’t much differentiated from competitors that offer similar products.

Still going strong with the Asian tech crowd, from what I see in the Bellevue (Seattle) area. We don’t care about politics (or we actually like Elon), and we don’t have many white friends that shame us about our cars. We just want dependable cars that have minimal maintenance. There aren’t that many of us though and we tend to keep our cars for a very long time.

If you want a dependable car, why would you buy a Tesla? They consistently score bottom of the pack for reliability and repair times.

Tesla’s drivetrain and battery longevity is unmatched compared to legacy auto, but non powertrain reliability issues and repair times are legitimate points.

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Model-Y-Juniper-expected-to-la...

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Fast-charged-Model-S-battery-g...

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-024-01698-1

The resale value plunge that EVs take (especially Teslas) suggest that the market is skeptical of these longevity claims.

I think you're correct about the market skepticism: there simply isn't enough long-term real world data to know how long an electric car's battery (the critical piece) or integrated systems will last.

There's also the issue of rapid technological advancement, like in the smartphone/computer early days. We're still learning about the fundamentals, eg. battery composition, the seller pays for the risk the same dollar gets more (and better) miles.

I'm quite confident ICE will very soon be a niche power source, I will boldly say the tipping point is 2030 :)

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-leads-vehicle-longevity-mile...

On most modern vehicles, the body rusts out, the suspension sags, the paintwork calls it quits and the trim falls apart well before the powertrain dies.

Many of the dings against reliability are “recalls” that get patched OTA. I’ve owned 3 over the past 7 years and the only time I’ve gone in for a repair was because the motorized truck bed cover wasn’t closing on its first try. I had to press it twice for a few weeks until I got it fixed.

Yes, it’s an anecdote. But it’s my “lived experience” as they say.

Owning 3 cars of the same car over 7 years doesn’t scream reliability to me.

I bought a 3, traded it in for a Y because we had kids, gave the Y to my wife and bought a CT for myself.

What made the CT an attractive purchase for you? I don't mean to be rude, but I just haven't figured out what makes people want to buy them.

The honest reason is I loved the look from the moment it was unveiled. I’ve had Teslas for years and this one is the same thing I’m used to but bigger and has massive cargo space, which is useful now that I have kids whose toys (strollers, bikes, skis/snowboards, ride on cars, etc) take up more and more space.

It also powered my house during an extended power outage, and drives itself when I need a break. I love the thing. Just wish it wasn’t wrapped up with so much political angst.

Appreciate the reply, thanks. I had heard so many stories about build issues (as with other new Tesla models), and it's pretty expensive too. I wasn't sure what attracted people enough to overcome these downsides (and the polarizing aesthetics, of course). But if you've got skis and ride-on cars, I see how the bed would make this a winner over the Model X.

Am Seattle-based Tesla owner, using the same Model X I bought in early 2018 with FSD the HW3 retrofit - right before Elon started going off the deep end…

It’s been almost 7 years and I’ve spent a grand total of $0.00 on servicing the car, even after the warranty expired. That compares favourably to my last car, a Ford, which had the dual-clutch transmission issue.

(Yes, Anecdotes are not data; also, as a Tesla shareholder I desperately want to see Elon ousted; he’s like a reverse-Schindler…)

Ford is not known for building reliable cars. They are consistently below the average on that metric.

Anecdotes are not data, but the one guy I know that is a die-hard Ford buyer has more car problems than anyone I've known.

Point being that if your previous baseline is Ford, I'd expect most brands to seem unbreakable.

Fair.

My mum’s Toyota Yaris is almost 20 years old now and you really wouldn’t know.

I’d like to see the actual distribution of issues because the impression that i get is that a few people have a lot of problems and a lot of people have few to no problems.

My three Teslas were the most unreliable cars I have ever owned.

Surprising to see Toyota rate most favorably here. Unless you count hybrids, Toyota only sells 1 EV (the bZ4X) which has poor range and slow charging.

Just goes to show the power of branding.

To me it reads as, "For those people looking to buy an EV, they have a favorable impression of the Toyota brand", i.e., they wish Toyota made a good EV but they'll probably end up with a Prius !

Prius buyers are pretty distinct from EV buyers. Hybrid buyers are looking for efficiency and don’t mind a clunky drive experience to pay for that efficiency. EV buyers are mostly looking for a great driving experience that you definitely wouldn’t get with a Prius, maybe a small sports car but they still want a family sedan or SUV.

Yeah, that was an immediate red flag. Something's fucky here. Nobody likes the BZ4X, not even Toyota. I thought maybe they were including plugin hybrids or regenerative hybrids in with EVs (technically true but not the common usage of the word), but the report only mentions the words "plug" and "hybrid" once each, and in that context they are mentioning them separately.

I guess it's possible alot of EV likers already have a Prius or something and really like it - that was me 2 years ago, it was a great car. But I still wouldn't have said I view Toyota favourably ever since it became clear they hate electric cars, and strange to see them ranked higher than Tesla. Something seems weird.

Well that and this was a survey of regular consumers, not pedantic programmers who tend to fall into the premature optimization trap. Most consumers don't care about the distinction between an EV and a hybrid. This also wasn't a question about which brand they actually plan to buy from, but it does potentially indicate a willingness to pull back and pick something that is good enough (a hybrid) rather than "perfect" (an EV). It tracks with my own experience too - I have considered Tesla in the past, but a Prius Prime seems like a more sensible choice for what I need.

For me against Tesla I have:

- I want to POSSESS my car, so I do not want services and remote actions out of my control, Tesla is not the only vendor who try making the car a service, but due to it's track records the sole way to convince me is becoming FLOSS

- I do want V2L/V2H with the best integration with my home p.v. possibly DC-2-DC directly, so far no cars offer something alike even if it's perfectly feasible, but Tesla do not offer even basic V2L...

BYD and Geely are demolishing Tesla on units shipped basis anyway everywhere in the world that Tesla isn't protected by policy. It is a shame because Musk would have owned this space if he had executed.

His atrocious personal behavior distracts from what a terrible and unfocused executive he is. Tesla sales are declining, he failed to deliver on Hyperloop, he failed to deliver on Semis, and he will fail to deliver on FSD just like his myriad promises that he did not deliver on https://qz.com/elon-musks-worst-predictions-promises-1851410...

Downvotes? BYD and Geely each shipped more cars in 2024 than Tesla. Together they more than tripled Tesla's units sold on a much higher growth rate. As an American citizen I consider it a tragedy, but a self-made one.

Dunno. If you look at Australia which is fairly neutral as they don't have their own car industry, Tesla are still ahead although they've fallen there too https://thedriven.io/2025/01/03/australian-electric-vehicle-...

Most of those Teslas are made in Shanghai though, so China is still winning market share with Tesla in Australia.

One way studies in science are 'faked' is by p-hacking. It turns out if you wiggle variables around enough, you can often find statistically significant data that isn't really relevant, but sounds like it could viably be. 538 has an excellent (and highly relevant) p-hacking demo based on real world data. [1] You want to "prove" that this party or that being in power has a statistically significant effect on the economy. It almost certainly doesn't, but if you tweak your sample enough you can "prove" that it does, in a way that sounds completely justifiable.

So this study limited itself exclusively to people intending to buy an EV and within the next year. The fun thing about p-hacking is that it sounds reasonable. For instance on that page limit the data to Democrat presidents, employment, exclude recessions, and you can prove that having a Democrat president is good for the economy. And that data selection even sounds reasonable. But it's not.

Musk not being fond of the political establishment is not exactly breaking news. Yet Tesla continues to dominate EV sales worldwide and domestically to the point that sales figures are broken down into "Tesla" and then "everybody else." And as others have mentioned Toyota dominating in this sample is quite indicative of the fact that they ended up surveying something besides EV favorability.

[1] - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/p-hacking/

Tesla continues to dominate EV sales worldwide and domestically to the point that sales figures are broken down into "Tesla" and then "everybody else."

That is false. BYD and Tesla both sold 1.7M last year if you are talking only EVs (BEV in BYD breakouts) which doesn't count BYD's 2.5M plugin hybrids. Teslas growth rate was flat and BYD's was a bit less than 50%.

Let me know if I've made any mistakes there, though.

Wow yeah BYD went to the Moon in the final quarters, which I hadn't checked! Somehow I suspect this article wasn't talking about China though, which is clearly where Tesla really needs to step it up!

Heaps of BYD EVs on the road here in Australia, and Tesla sales are plummeting here now too.

Tesla's also a relatively small part of the market in the EU (varies, but generally on the order of 15-20% of the BEV market). The US is really the only large market where they're very dominant, and (and this should be concerning for them), it is the least _mature_ of the three big markets; many EVs were not launched in the US at all, and most of those which were were designed more for European or Asian tastes than for American (the Nissan Leaf, say, was available in the US, but is not the sort of car which sells well in the US). As that changes, and more EVs with good product market fit show up in the US, you'd expect the US market to evolve more towards the European one (that is, a bunch of manufacturers with 5-25% market shares). That's what normal mature markets for virtually everything, and certainly for cars, look like.

Rivian R2 is going to change the game. It's a direct competitor to the best selling Tesla (Y). I have an R1S (as well as a Y) but R1S is such an amazing SUV to drive. Especially in the bad weather.

Rivians are so ugly.

This seems to be a matter of opinion. I think they look great!

A non-produced theory of a car will always change the game.

I hope it does well, but Rivian is still wildly in debt, not making a profit on vehicles (Maybe Q4 2024), etc...

Let's wait until you can actually buy one and see what the price and specs are in reality.

The rest of the world aren't looking for huge cars.

How can Toyota even be on this list when they only sell one, terrible, hilariously overpriced electric car, and have stated numerous times they don't want anything to do with EVs?

It's very disappointing. I loved my Prius and would have loved a good Toyota EV. I've even driven their hydrogen car and it's not bad. But they insist on doing a Blockbuster\Nokia\Blackberry\Kodak and we can't stop them.

Because hybrids are the best EV’s and Toyota makes the best hubrids.

Certainly depends what you believe defines "best".

Hybrids have all the complexity of a ICE with most of the complexity of an EV. Particularly PHEVs.

Hybrids, assuming they are reliable, exist to save on gas mileage and for that reason have value. PHEVs are overpriced hybrids IMO.

As someone who drives an, admittedly top of the line, EV daily. I feel like PHEVs don't fit anywhere in the market. Hybrids will exist as long as consumer sentiment is EVs have range problems. Those consumers, I believe, are uninformed of the actual range of EVs and uninformed about how EV charging works (or should work).

I'd assume it's people who haven't done any research yet -- they said they want an EV, and then they got asked "do you like the idea of buying an EV from Brand X?". It's a pure gut feeling about the brand.

This shows how (un)informed the respondents were. The surveys seem to be specifically about EVs, not hybrids, given the reference to charging networks.

Have you heard of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs)?

Of course. Does the article mention them? My point stands, considering that Toyota doesn't sell many of those either. I recall during COVID RAV 4 Primes were going for like $100k because they were in such short supply.

I have found that most people who know about Toyota's vehicles are not aware of their PHEVs, so doubt that most people in this survey were thinking of them.

MAGA thinks EVs after going to blows up in their garage and kill them. That's why Elon did the hail Mary. He guessed EV was going to tank, he did the public heal turn, Tesla will bomb but then he'll get some crazy govt deal for every company.

Here wants to be Boeing/Lockhead/GD, a nationally protected company with fat fat government contracts. Trump might throw him a bone. That's his reward for supporting 2025. The new deep state will happily create a new Howard Hughes.

It's a grift. The grift of the century.

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