The insurance analogy doesn't work - programming skills exist on a spectrum of daily relevance. Insurance becomes relevant in rare emergencies. Programming skills are becoming less relevant in day-to-day.

What I pointed out in my post is a trend I notice where an LLM can do more and more of a developer's work. Nowhere did I claim LLMs can replace human developers today, but when a technology consistently reduces the need for manual programming while improving its capabilities, the trajectory is clear. You can disagree with the timeline, but the transformation is already underway.

I posted on HN precisely because I wanted rigorous technical discussion, not validation.