Who is going to replace US? China? Its economy is on the decline with deflation, debts, real estates problem...etc. Europe? Japan?
There doesn't have to be a replacement. Just like nobody replaced the USSR after the Cold War ended leaving the US as the worlds lone super power.
A world can exist with no super powers and with multiple conventional powers.
Some kinds of babies are good and other babies are bad (in their view). They only want "good" babies.
Trump's unconstitutional executive order targeting birthright citizenship tells you all you need to know about who they think the bad ones are.
And though many have tried, no country has figured out how to meaningfully drive up birth rates with pro-natalist policies.
There's only one proven way to get more babies and sustain economic growth when native birthrates decline: MORE IMMIGRATION.
If immigration to the US continues apace, we surpass China's total population within decades and continue strong economic growth comfortably. If TrumpElon really manage to kill the golden goose, welp... it's been real.
First, I'm saying Musk's apparent interest in birth rates is best understood as a component of the neo-fascist, authoritarian project in which he's embedded himself, the likes of which we've seen many times throughout history, and is the kind of thing that often culminates in large scale atrocity.
Second, I'm saying for anyone who is truly interested in driving population growth, the last thing one would do is inhibit immigration. Instead, you'd open the floodgates.
And, well put this way: the management in China seems to be more grown-up and stable, which is better for long-term prospects.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr54x00857o
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/chinese-econ...
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/
https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trou...
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/xi-china-economic-decli...
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/business/chinas-gdp-q2.ht...
"growing slowly" != "declining"
> https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crr54x00857o
"China's economy expanded in the third quarter at the slowest pace since early last year, as the country struggles to boost flagging growth."
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/20/chinese-econ...
"It has been a grim month for the Chinese economy: A slew of recent data has revealed the world’s second-largest economy is slowing faster than expected, causing analysts to predict it will miss its relatively modest 5 percent growth target this year."
> https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-deflation/
*Chart showing growth in all but one quarter since the start of 2019, and good growth in all but one of the growing quarters*
> https://www.aei.org/economics/chinas-economy-is-in-deep-trou...
"This week’s disappointing Chinese GDP (gross domestic product) numbers showed that Chinese economic growth has slowed to 4.75 percent from the very rapid annual economic growth rate of seven to eight percent during the 2010s"
> https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/06/03/xi-china-economic-decli...
"China’s economy is performing dreadfully. The post-pandemic bounce was far smaller and briefer than the Chinese government had anticipated. Despite recording a respectable, if diminished, official growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2023, the reality may have been much slower, with some analysts estimating growth was no more than 1-2 percent."
> https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/business/chinas-gdp-q2.ht...
"China’s economy grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months, below the expectations of most economists. When projected out for the entire year, the economy grew at an annual rate of about 2.8 percent — a little less than half the rate in the first three months of this year."
The USA, by comparison, was 2.5% in 2023.
If China is "in decline" from these numbers, so is the USA.
No one. And everyone.
That's the point. There will be no on 'policing' things (even imperfectly), and so anyone who wants to do a power grab will make an attempt.
"Those in positions of power do what their power permits, while the weak have no choice but to accept it." — Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War, 5.89
There will be no one 'policing' things (even imperfectly)
Although, that's a specific part of the "world policing" role that I can see China stepping into.
They certainly have the manpower and the shipbuilding capacity, and they certainly have the incentive to protect international shipping so they can sell their goods everywhere.
I don't think China (yet) wants any part of the other bits of world policing, like deploying armies and/or funding proxy wars on the other side of the world.
IDK, I could see China funding a proxy war in Ukraine, any time soon.
Just not in a good way, so to speak.
I don't think they want the US as an enemy. It's not good business for them.
I have a 100% unsupported belief that 100% of the public messaging from all sides regarding Taiwan is complete BS. I think that behind closed doors, all parties (except maybe Taiwan themselves) are working out a deal so that Taiwan winds up back in China's hands in the next 10-15 years without a war and everybody gets to save some face. I think that the CHIPS act, TSMC foundries on US soil, etc are all part of this process. It is the most mutually beneficial situation for the US and China: they get Taiwan; we get non-traumatic continuity for our chip supplies, everybody gets to save face, etc. (I'm not endorsing it or decrying it or even touching the morality or lack thereof)
I think that you're probably correct, but that goal will be in tension with the corollary "... And Russia next door is buying lots of raw materials and miliary hardware, even at an above-market price".
China is thinking long term and building capabilities:
> Except then a war comes, and suddenly you find that B2B SaaS and advertising platforms and chat apps aren’t very useful for defending your freedoms. Oops! The right time to worry about manufacturing would have been years before the war, except you weren’t able to anticipate and prepare for the future. Manufacturing doesn’t just support war — in a very real way, it’s a war in and of itself.
i'm not saying it's good or bad, but i think this is a thing that most people don't seem to be recognizing/acknowledging.
> I think that the CHIPS act, TSMC foundries on US soil, etc are all part of this process.
very likely
https://www.thenerdreich.com/trumps-weird-freedom-cities-and...
Wonder how long they'd last if Greenland, Panama and Gaza are up for grabs by non-network states though.