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Comment by 1vuio0pswjnm7 | Hacker News Reader

By citing seizure numbers and mentioning nothing else about each respective border, this article and other news reports I am seeing seem to imply or suggest that that seizures are a direct representation of how much contraband is crossing a border. That's possible. It's also possible that seizures are a representation, at least in part, of something else. For example, the success of border authorities in detecting and confiscating contraband. Authorities on one border might be more more successful than authorities on another border. The frequency and amounts of seizures might not be indicative of the total amount of contraband that is crossing a particular border undetected. The seizure rate might be related to geographical or other characteristics of the border, for example.

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It is possible the data is biased by enforcement ability. However, the difference is huge. Last year only 0.2% of fentanyl was seized at the northern border and 98% at the southern border.

I do find it interesting that the articles almost never mention the direction the drugs were moving in …

Since we don’t have outgoing searches, it’s safe to assume that 100% of the drugs reported in this way are incoming. You’d need to look at Mexico’s and Canada’s detail to see how much we’re sending that way. (Notably, it was a point of emphasis on the Trump-Sheinbaum call where she was asking for help since so many cartel firearms enter Mexico from the US)

I agree. I'd expand this by noting this doesn't only apply to borders, but the whole territory too. The article does note:

> [...] the trade in other chemicals involved in the manufacturing of fentanyl - some of which can have legitimate purposes - remain uncontrolled, as those involved in the trade find new ways to evade the law.

One has to imagine there's local manufacturing of fentanyl too, and one has to wonder the magnitude of it.

This is easily refuted by looking at flows in the opposite direction, which show large amounts of fentanyl going from the US to Canada.

It's revealing how many sub designs they found on south american jungles, but few actually found in traffic or on the targets coast.

Not sure why this is downvoted.

It’s the classic “put more armor on the areas with holes for planes that make it back from bombing raids”.

Inspections at the respective borders is absolutely not equal as anyone who has travelled by land through both borders. A lot more contraband comes through the South border and much more enforcement is there as well.

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