Maybe. And maybe it goes in reverse, like it did the the China vs Australia trade war. China was the big boy in that dispute, and it's Australia's biggest trading partner by country. It wasn't pleasant for either side, but in the end Australia diversified much faster the China.

Interestingly, Australia didn't retaliate against China. We keep buying the Chinese stuff at the usual cheap prices, and found other markets for our goods they banned. China paid more, or did without. So we didn't have any leverage, but China normalised trade with Australia after a while anyway.

I have no idea which way it will go here, but "USA big, Canada little, so USA wins" isn't a foregone conclusion.

Perhaps the most nimble nation wins. The most nimble nation usually isn't the one putting up trade barriers and antagonising neighbours and friends. I reckon you'll know the outcome by the end of Trump's term, if it said term doesn't continue forever.