Could also just be software updates or other things causing this but there should be some component of decreasing performance caused by wear on flash storage.
A lot of - especially older or mid/low range - phones have cheap eMMC storage which is signifcantly worse at wear leveling than the higher end UFS storage.
Which is shocking really - the phones should switch the eMMC to RAW flash mode (ie. no wear levelling), and then write an actually-smart wear levelling algorithm that runs in the OS.
The OS has far better info for wear levelling anyway - it has more visibility into read-write patterns, it has more RAM to store more state, it can cron background scrubs and reorganisation to idle periods, it can be patched if a bug is found which only manifests after years, etc.
Unfortunately, as far as I'm aware, most eMMC's can't be put into any kind of RAW mode anyway.
There's usually trends to look for in regards to that third factor. The lower the # of bits per cell, the higher probability the voltage level is still working the right range. Which is why so much flash is still SLC or pSLC capable. Usually this is more industrial. Then you have entirely different technologies altogether. NVRAM/FRAM/MRAM are various terms for extremely high (or infinite) read/write technologies while still being non-volatile (keeps its data with power off). I don't know how much of a drop in replacement those are. I think LTT had one of those on a flash drive a while back https://youtu.be/oJ5fFph0AEM, but it's so low capacity it'll probably be useless.
It may be possible to hack something up with a MR5A16A. It's a whole 4 MB but has unlimited endurance and over 20 years of endurance. It looks like it has more of an SRAM interface than NAND, but should be capable of saturating a USB high speed link. The drive would likely cost $75? TBH if there was a market it may be a fun project.
If you sacrifice some endurance you can go up to 1Gb per device which might be interesting. But the cost scales.
Accelerated stability testing is fraught with potential issues, and any output is intentionally conservative.
An issue with estimating lifespan on new products is that they'll expose them to more extreme conditions, but those more extreme conditions may trigger (exponentially faster) higher order reactions that are relative non-issues at regular conditions.
Then you have things like activation energy requirements for a reaction that just might not be met at regular conditions, but happen at higher temperatures.
And an IC is quite the soup of molecules in varying combinations unlike a straightforward solution.
Samsung still screwed up with the planar TLC flash used in the infamous 840 EVO SSD, which had a real-world retention measured in months. Their "fix" was to issue a firmware update that continuously rewrites data in the background, but of course this has no effect if the drive isn't always powered.
https://forum.acelab.eu.com/viewtopic.php?t=8735
https://goughlui.com/2024/07/20/salvage-tested-an-elderly-fo...