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Comment by mrweasel | Hacker News Reader

In the article he does mention that this is more like a "gray swans" situation. I take that to mean that he is in agreement with many that this wasn't entirely unpredictable.

It may not have been obvious to a certain type of investor, but many here on HN have said that Nvidia is overvalued. Also given the speed of which many others have court up to OpenAI, it wasn't unreasonable to expect someone to overtake them or find an alternative path.

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And they didn't just say that NVidia was overvalued, but that it was overvalued for precisely this reason. I've also read people here and elsewhere warn that export controls could quickly become ineffective as Chinese researchers find clever ways to train models with lower-end hardware. I think if there had been a prediction market, this outcome would have been given a better than 50% probability here, though maybe the speed it happened has surprised people.

It's not even a "gray swan" event, it was entirely predictable. Google was internally explicitly predicting this a year and a half ago* and they can't have been the only ones.

*"Google 'We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI'" - https://semianalysis.com/2023/05/04/google-we-have-no-moat-a...

> Taleb said too many investors have been bidding up prices of firms related to AI without properly knowing the details of how it functions or is able to succeed.

This may just be Taleb retrofitting terms to give him talking time. So while yes, it was entirely predictable, if you actually research what you're buying into and understand it... which most don't.

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