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I thought Peter Zeihan was a geopolitical expert until he started talking about things I lived through, with complete ignorance of the basics. It's not that his take was wrong, it's that his basic underlying assumptions were all wildly different from reality on the ground.

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Any sort of geopolitical expert is generally going to be labeled as such because he works in the domain at a reasonably high level.

The problem with that is that when at such a level, political factors start to come into play.

The net effect is that in any conflict, the winning side will have competent and qualified expert geopolitical analyses, while the losing side will have propagandists.

So the geopolitical expert is, at best, a liminal species.

do you have some examples? I came to the exact same conclusion

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