> AI doesn't seem to be one of those things where society as a whole will say, "we have enough of that; we don't need any more".
Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?
Really? Has anyone made a useful, commercially successful product with it yet?
People talk like the end user demand part of the equation is really solved when invoking an Econ 101 magical interpretation of the Law of Supply and Demand or Jevons Padadox.
Deep integration into iOS won't be tacked on in a rush to market addition to OS.
But to be clear, none of these things are commercial products. They're gimmicks. Google is an ads company, they make their money selling ads. Apple is a computer company, they make their money selling computers. These "AI products" are a circus sideshow.
The question is whether ChatGPT (the product) and running thr API is profitable or at at least whether the trend is that cost are coming down.
The same is happening in enterprise tier products, Copilot 365 is still an extra SKU to count while Google Gemini Advanced has been integrated into the Workspace offering (i.e. they actually force you for an upsell of ~20% per user license for something we didn't ask, but I digress). At least that's a better alternative that paying +20 USD per license.
Prices need to and will go down, and business models will have to change and they are already doing so. But I'm not sure if OpenAI is really ready for that.
I gave it an easy one, “How many of the actors from the original Star Trek are still alive”. It gave me accurate information as of its training cut off date. But ChatGPT automatically did a web search to validate its answer. I had to choose the search option for it to look up later info.
With ChatGPT even when it doesn’t do a web search automatically, I can either tell it to “validate this” or put in my prompt “validate all answers by doing a web lookup”.
Then I gave it a simple compounding interest problem with monthly payments and wanted a month by month breakdown. DeepSeek used its multi step reasoning like o1 and was slower. ChatGPT 4o just created a Python script and used its internal Python interpreter.
Then DeepSeek started timing out.
This is the presentation of “what are some of the best places to eat in Chicago?”
https://chatgpt.com/share/6799510f-f4a8-8010-b80d-100c95d36d...
It doesn’t show on the shared link. But in the app it gives you a map of the restaurants or you can choose a list.
I can’t share a conversation with DeepSeek (?). But suffice it to say, the interface wasn’t as good.
I’m not saying the underlying technology of DeepSeek isn’t “good enough”. But the end user product is severely lacking.
Aren't millions or even tens of millions students using ChatGPT for example? To me that sounds like a commercial success (and looks comparable with the usage of Google Search - a money printing machine for more almost 30 years now - in the first years)
And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we don't have secretaries anymore in the civilized world, that means "Agents AI" is going to have a blast.
(i'm long on NVDA and wondering is it enough blood on the streets to buy more :)
It isn't because it's not making them any money. Having users doesn't mean you have a business. If you sell two dollars for one dollar having more users is not a blessing financially. Of course you could slap ads on it, like Google, but unlike Google openAI has no moat and there's already ten competitors. Competition eliminates profit and AI is being commoditized faster than pretty much anything else.
what was Google moat?
>and there's already ten potential competitors. Competition eliminates profit and AI is being commoditized faster than pretty much anything else.
we're discussing NVDA. Where are its competitors? ChatGPT having 10 competitors only makes things better for NVDA.
>Competition eliminates profit
Competition weeds out bad/ineffective performers which is great. History of our industry is littered with competition taking out bad performers, and our industry is only better for that. Fast commoditization of AI is just great and fits the best patterns like say PC-revolution (and like it i think the AI-revolution wouldn't be just one app/user-case, it will be a tectonic shift instead).
I read somewhere that OpenAI brought in $3.7 billion in 2024, and made a loss of $6 billion. So... no I don't think that is an example. They want to make a commercially successful product, but ChatGPT doesn't seem to be there yet.
> And enterprise-wise - heard recently a VP complaining about entering expenses. As we don't have secretaries anymore in the civilized world, that means "Agents AI" is going to have a blast.
We don't have secretaries because the word became unfashionable. They are called PAs or executive assistants or something like that now. They're still there, but if anything the need for them has probably been reduced with (non-AI) computers (calendars, contacts, emails, electronic documents, etc.) so I'm not sure that there is some enormous unmet demand for them.