And whether it’s overvalued or not isn’t relevant that selling a stock because the product the company produces is now even more effective is mind bogglingly stupid.
No it isn't. Investors are most likely expecting there will be less demand for Nvidia's product long-term due to these alleged increased training efficiencies.
You shouldn't underestimate the fact that a large amount of these trades are on margin. Sometimes you can't wait it out because you'll get margin called and if you can't pony up additional cash you're basically getting caught with your pants down.
Disclaimer: I am not a trader, so could be way off
If it’s cheaper to inference you end up using the model for more task, it it’s cheaper to train you train more than models. And if you now need only 1000’s of GPUs instead of 10’s or 100’s of thousands you’ve just unlocked a massive client base of those who can afford to invest high six to low seven figures instead of 100’s of millions or billions into to try their luck.
They have a lot of very smart people and the will to do it, seems like a matter of time before they succeed.
The proof is in the pudding, you're welcome to prove "everyone" wrong.
If it’s cheaper to train models it means far more customers that will try their luck.
If you reduce training requirement from a 100,000 GPUs to a 1000 you’ve now opened the market to 1000’s and 1000’s of potential players instead of like the 10 that can afford dumping so much money into a compute cluster.
The goal for AGI and ASI MUST BE to train, inference, train, inference and so on and that all on the fly in fractions of a second from every token produced.
Now good luck calculating the compute and hard work in algorithms to get there.
Not possible? Then AGI won't ever work because how can AGI beat a human if it can't learn on the fly? Not to mention ASI lol.
Just for those that clearly have no idea https://old.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/1d2okn1/when_wil...
You seem to believe that the more inference or training value per piece of tech the more demand there will be for that piece of tech full stop when there are multiple forces at play. As a simple example, you can think of this as a supply spike; while you can make the bet that the demand will follow there could be a lag on that demand spike due to the time it takes to find use cases with product/market fit. That could collapse prices over the near term which could in turn decrease revenue. As a reminder the stock value isn't a bet on whether "the gold trader" will sell more gold or not, it's a bet on whether the net future returns of the gold trader will occur in line with expectations, expectations that are sky high and have zero competition built in.