Mass deportations would deliver a catastrophic blow to the U.S. Economy | Hacker News Reader

Mass deportations would deliver a catastrophic blow to the U.S. Economy

jec.senate.gov

28 pointsgeox70 comments

I believe the emphasis should have been fixing the immigration process and in parallel removing all the violent illegal immigrants whilst leaving the working and tax paying illegal immigrants alone. Less damage to the worker base and less damage to society and giving companies a grace period to get into compliance. Companies should be given a way to help expedite the background check process and take responsibility for the employees.

Fixing the immigration process means losing the biggest, campaign winning issue

Donold is also not known or building consensus and finding middle ground. These are at the core of legislating for a diverse country.

I agree but then he isn't THAT smart. I mean they went all the way on restricting abortion after using it for campaigns for decades.

Abortion is now even more pervasive in politics, expanded to state level elections and a forever issue... since the only way to a national law is through congress and any law can be modified, replaced, or removed by a change in the makeup of congress. It likely means cultural wars will dominate over policy debates, which is what the oligarchy wants... distraction of the pleebs so they can consolidate wealth and power even more. I think the only way to reframe and fix the path we are on is to build a coalition and move from culture war to class warfare

The culture war is going to be over soon, the left has basically given up. When we have trillionaires at the same time as social security and medicare going tits up, Luigi-type figures are going to come out of the woodwork. The ultra rich won't be able to hire help because they'll be too scared. At that point the government is done unless it turns hard left.

I don't think the culture war is over, the left seems to be reflecting, and it has certainly taken a motivation hit, but giving up has not happened. The left is lacking a leading voice to rally behind

Keep in mind, Donold only won by ~100k voters across 3 states. There was not a landslide nor is there a mandate

He shifted voters incrementally more red than previous elections across almost every zip code, and demographic. It was very much a wipeout in that sense.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/p...

An election where if 100k voters in 3 states had checked a different box, does not make a wipeout. A small movement across some of the demographics, while also others going the other way, does not make a wipeout

This is what wipeouts look like: https://www.history.com/news/landslide-presidential-election...

wipeout is what grandpa biden did to him in 2020, 2024 was thin margin victory - nowhere near any sane definition of a “wipeout”

I imagine robot soldiers that answer to them aren't far off.

The real life way that we'll have Terminator is when the oligarchs make AI to defend themselves, and the AI keeps fighting after all oligarchs have been killed by revolutionaries.

I suspect automated manufacturing and automated maintenance of the manufacturing could lead to a world where the rich can afford to kill off the poor, and then over generations devolve into a society that has no knowledge of how the machine that is providing them with food and supplies works- without any ASI takeoff.

Well its an issue but GOP I think accidentally flipped the salience of it.

It used to be a way to motivate the right wing base to get out & vote to give it back to the states / try to ban it.

Now its an issue for the left wing to get out the base & vote to restore consistent national access.

Not fixing it didn't work well for the prior admin. If fixing it and not fixing it are both political losers, politicians might as well follow their principles as a last resort. To see what it's like.

Being more holistic about the problem instead of only talking about it as a border issue or sign of racism (depending on which side you are on)

For anyone that looks at the actual data, the real issue is not immigration, we averaged over 1M a year for decades and it was not such a hot button issue. Trump is more a symptom, that used xenophobia as an outlet and rallying cry, for those who were left behind as the economy has shifted from a manufacturing base to an information / services base.

My winning move might be reframing as class warfare against the oligarchy, but we are in culture wars right now...

It's also worth considering this a global issue and pattern

They did “fix” it but legislation was sabotaged by Republicans. Republicans sabotaged George W. Bush’s immigration “fix”.

If legislation is necessary to fix it, does that predict that Trump's executive orders on undocumented immigration won't have a significant effect?

EOs are limited in ways legislation is not. They are also trivially changed with a change to the administration, making them less significant if one looks beyond a few years

This seems to acknowledge that Trump is making effective temporary changes that the Biden administration chose not to. I think that and inflation swung the election.

I'm making no such acknowledgement they are effective changes, it's only been 3 days... I expect if they are actually allowed to go into force for any extended period of time to the extent they want, the secondary effects will cause more harm than a few hundred thousand of extra undocumented immigrants

I certainly find them to have significant inhumane potential that does not align with my vision for what being American means

I've spent four decades looking at the vote and learning that my fellow Americans are not aligned with my vision of being an American. If this is new to you then welcome to the party. I wish I could tell you that it gets easier.

he won’t get very much through congress in the 2nd term either. the EOs are like a one-night stand, everyone who disagrees with him is all up in arms about but everything he stroked the pen on will be erased in a day in 2029 - not that he gives a shit about that, he’ll probably he a trillionaire by the time he leaves office and that’s the only thing he cares about :)

I think the prospects of a US recession, or global if a fight over Taiwan blows up, more likely than there being any trillionaires in the next four years

EXACTLY same comments were made by many in 2021 when Biden took office... eventually one might be right about that ... :)

Xi has made it is career goal to end the Chinese civil war and he doesn't have that much time left. Even in the previous election cycle, experts have been estimating near the end of the decade

I know this comment can't be used to evaluate the policy of the new president as a whole, but I can't help but find ironic that after his inauguration day egg futures went up by 7%

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eggs-us

I’m sure large corporations would be affected as well but you cannot walk into a kitchen of an almost any size business that does not have undocumented people working in it.

This would absolutely slaughter small businesses in the restaurant/food space. And while larger businesses would be hurt as well, I worry that they would be able to weather it and come out as the only game in town (or competing with a lot fewer people) afterwards.

I'm interested in the downvotes. Do you disagree that undocumented people are working in many/most kitchens across the US? Does that fact just make you uncomfortable? Do you think that deporting them would suddenly cause a surge in qualified people to replace them (it won't)? Do you think that restaurants could handle this without issue?

I have friends and family in the restaurant business so I'd love to hear other viewpoints but downvotes for what is a pretty solid fact just strikes me as odd.

There would be short term pain yes. This is an unfortunate consequence of parasitic leadership ruling for so long. However, pushing that can down the road does not make things better. Ideally we’d reclaim some of their unfathomable wealth to ease the pain.

Immigration is used by both sides to depress American wages. The left pushes for illegal immigrants which drives down blue collar wages. The right pushes for legal (but still exploitable) H1-Bs, etc. to drive down white collar wages. In both cases American workers suffer.

What is the point of country? As it operates today, America’s point is to increase the wealth gap between the rich (who hold US dollars but might not be citizens) and poor Americans. I believe it should be to decrease that gap. And no matter how you pitch it, mass immigration only depresses standard of living for locals (O1 von braun kind of immigrants are good, but they’re truly exceptional cases).

> This is an unfortunate consequence of parasitic leadership ruling for so long.

The new parasites will be far worse than the old ones, buddy. You're chatting on a forum full of software engineers. Nobody here has their wages depressed by immigrants. Our wages are getting depressed by offshoring, you think the new leaders will have anything to say about that? You think Musk, Bezos, and Zuckerberg are interested in paying their workers more?

> Immigration is used by both sides to depress American wages. The left pushes for illegal immigrants which drives down blue collar wages. The right pushes for legal (but still exploitable) H1-Bs, etc. to drive down white collar wages. In both cases American workers suffer.

I think you have that confused. Trump hotels had/have illegal immigrants working in them, Mitt Romney had an illegal immigrant as a maid, construction and agriculture industries are owned mostly by conservatives who make the most on employing illegal immigrants. That Republicans didn't even bother with illegal immigration before Trump was mainly due to self financial interest, whereas Democrat's interest is primarily humanitarian.

Trump brought blue collar voters into the Republican party. That Trump has vowed to go after illegal immigrants in cities (blue collar competition) and leave rural areas alone (farm workers aren't a big voting block, but farmers that employ them are and vote very Republican) should be telling.

Why do you say the Democrat's interest is primarily humanitarian when Democrat operatives for years had been signaling how they thought they could grow a huge voter business and possibly never have Republican majorities or White House due to "undocumented workers"?

That's is what you call a bonafide conspiracy theory. "The democrats are trying to steal elections with illegal immigrant votes!" I'm not sure how to reply to that in a non-sarcastic way that would satisfy HN's guidelines.

"Undocumented workers" can't vote. This shit was completely made up by the right.

No, it's not that illegal aliens will actually vote. It's not a conspiracy as another poster put it. I have heard people like Chuck Rocha (democrat operative) talk about this on MSNBC before. It's not that they vote in the current election, it's that over a period of time if you do nothing to stop or deport them then you enact policies of amnesty and paths to citizenship or they have kids and over a 10-20 year period or so you hopefully get bulletproof majorities. This is not a conspiracy, I have heard democrats talk about this.

What percentage do you think it is? Are you really of the opinion that the economy or restaurant business will fall a part or the economy will fail because of a lack illegal immigrants? Doesn't that seem far fetched?

Why does no one care about wages?

Oh, the guys he was sponsored by do care about wages, as in having to pay as low as possible

Wages and the purchasing power of those wages are downstream from productivity.

Very far downstream - remember, it's trickle down economics. it's been trickling down since the 50s, and it should reach the minimum wage employees any time now.

That was true until the 80s.

This needs to be done VERY slowly over a long period of time. Any fast solutions will result in massive economic problems because the economy doesn't have enough time to adjust.

Violent criminals can be deported immediately, those on welfare should be next (but given enough time so they can at least save up money and not end up homeless when they reach their original country), then those not working should be deported, then lastely those working should be given a chance to self deport or promise a self deportation timeframe.

Mass deportations of this scale 20-30 million people should be done over the course of a decade at the minimum. I'm against illegal immigration but also against crashing the economy or dumping our illegal immigrants back in their home country without a plan or safety net.

Ideally there would be reform of the legal immigration process as well. The US has supported UN NGOs which incentivize quasi-legal migration. Migrants claiming asylum have been coached through the process and subsidized. Meanwhile the backlog for processing is untenable. What else can be expected under this scenario? Of course these alleged asylum seekers will find work.

The process should be streamlined for legitimate asylum claims and legal immigration. Applicants of any type shouldn't wait months or sometimes years. The process shouldn't require lawyers or byzantine procedures.

It looks bad when the government is subsidizing individuals who arguably abuse the system. Those who wish to abide by the rules are put through an expensive, kafakesque bureaucracy. The absolute worst are the individuals who prey upon the migrants and exploit women and children in the process.

Mass deportations are not the ideal solution, but the current incentive structure has created a horrible situation.

Googling for statistics was difficult. Lots of month to month 'headlines', but the averages were difficult to determine. Highly variable.

Best I can come up with is last year 250,000 non citizens were removed from the US. (deported? i think that is the word). This excludes those turned away at the border, or not allowed in after contact with a border agent (not an expert, this is inferred by reading a couple of pages). 685 per day, every day.

Take 30 million eligible. That would take about 120 years.

Even doing it over 10 years would require increasing the current effort by a factor of 12.

No way the government can expand enough, and allocate enough resources to make that happen. Double or triple the current pace, maybe.

It is going to take a long time.

(personal opinion: criminals, send them back. immigrants committing fraud, send them back. people working and being part of society, make them a pathway to citizenship or legal residence. close the border to un monitored crossings)

I don’t think Trump made any campaign promises that wouldn’t deliver a catastrophic blow to the US economy. That was his entire campaign.

Pretty much his whole campaign was that inflation was bad, and also here's a bunch of stuff I'm gonna do (which will make inflation worse).

Mass deportations (reduces low wage services workforce), tariffs (tax on imports), taking Fed independence away so he could cut rates fast & furiously (the fuel that feeds every inflation wave), etc.

The wave of propaganda via conservative media was total and complete. I believe there is a lot of foreign money involved. I hope other democratic countries have taken note.

Yes. And it was done so cheaply. It is now easy a relatively cheap to sway public opinion. The concentration of social media in a few company’s hands means that large amounts of regulation are needed.

Not just conservative media. All media is captured by these oligarchs now. The real consequences will not be reported and will not be shared through social media. It's time to start building resilient in-person connections if you don't yet have them. The state has captured all digital communication.

I think everyone here is overestimating voters.

Inflation was higher than it has been in recent history (ex COVID spike). This already defaults people into "kick the bums out" mode.

Trump is rhetorically gifted and was able to latch onto the topic even if his solutions will only worsen it.

Don't assume malice and conspiracy where incompetence and laziness suffice.

Rhetorically gifted?!? Have you heard the man attempt to speak…?

you know the audience that considers him rhetorically gifted, right...? :)

Not all entertainment is for all audiences.

Yes, they've noticed. Unfortunately, the ones who are taking the best notes are the ones who want to repeat this performance.

deregulation is ways great for the economy

In the short term, sure. In the longer term… have you met 2008?

see my comment above... you are right but there is no longer term in politics, especially in today's day and age...

> you are right but there is no longer term in politics, especially in today's day and age

Unfortunately, I still have enough years left in me, that I'm gonna be here for the long haul. The stock market exploding due to deregulation, and then in 10 years the entire economy imploding because of it, just means that I'm going to have to live through the economy imploding again.

I do not disagree, however my entire comment was on:

I don’t think Trump made any campaign promises that wouldn’t deliver a catastrophic blow to the US economy

I think deregulation will help the economy for sure. we can only speculate about the 10-year effects of such decisions

> we can only speculate about the 10-year effects of such decisions

I feel like I've been around long enough that I don't need to speculate on the long term effects of deregulation. We've seen the same things happen over and over.

Considering 2008 was inflamed by the Community Reinvestment Act, regulation that forced banks at gunpoint to lend to borrowers who were very likely to be delinquent, I'd say your comment is revisionism at best.

Calling it deregulation when it was kicked off by a regulation that forced banks to give mortgages to people who could not afford it is a very questionable position.

Not all economic activity is beneficial to society though.

Economic activity generated by treating sick people from polluted air and/or water is a net negative to society; economic activity that feeds on despair (disasters, sickness, etc.) or 2nd/3rd order effects of deregulated industries is a net negative.

Deregulation can cause an uptick in economic activity that has unforeseen negative consequences later down the line which might cost more for society to deal with, even though fixing it will generate even more economic activity.

... later down the line...

do you think right now anyone is discussing things that Clinton/Bush/Obama/... did that caused problems "later down the line."? If Trump came up to the podium and said "don't blame me for this, blame GW Bush" we would all be laughing...

you are right of course but there is no later down the line in politics...

Your comment is wildly incorrect

sounds about right :)

Do the Republicans want us to be having this discussion? Will there be repercussions?

Immigration helps business owners: the price of labor goes down. If the advantage they get from it also "tickles down" to the general public (most voters, pre-existing laborers) depends. If wages stay low due to immigration that may be considered a bad thing, if goods are cheaper that may be a good thing, and more trade ("better economy") is super important! /s

Most people that live in healthy communities do not like a large influx of newcomers into their communities: they prefer to keep it the way it was. This is why I believe voters vote against immigration.

So on one hand the general public is against, on the other hand the business owners are in favor.

Let's see how this pans out. Usually political parties are more strongly against (illegal) immigration when rallying, and more in favor of it when they are in power.

Sounds like it would be fantastic for the kind of degrowth we need to do to begin to save the planet.

Seven point four percent reduction in GDP? An excellent start!

That would hurt the poorest most. Is that a sacrifice you're willing to make?

I assume he was parodying the Malthusian left in an attempt to illustrate hypocrisy.

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