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Comment by MR4D | Hacker News Reader

Given the release of the new DeepSeek R1 model [0], OpenAI’s future revenue stream is probably more at risk than it was a week ago.

[0] - https://arstechnica.com/ai/2025/01/china-is-catching-up-with...

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OpenAI will not exist in 5 years, I'm calling it now. First movers to market dont always win, and they will surely lose.

Google was first mover.

In what way? They weren't the first search engine, or advertising on the web?

In terms of ai and OpenAI leapfrogged them

The question is what's going to be OpenAI's Adwords.

Yahoo, AOL, Alta Vista (others too) all were search engines on the web before Google's Sept 1998 existence.

Lycos, Metacrawler, Dogpile. The list goes on

Sure, but we are talking ai and the fact that google was first in this space.

The first in what? Not in search nor Generative AI.

Why would you think search. Google wasn't first for search. They were first for page rank

Google researchers invented the transformer

Who if not Google was the first in generative ai? They invented transformers and diffusion, the cornerstones of text and image generati, respectively.

They weren't the first to meaningfully commercialise either, though. That remains with OpenAI for both (GPT-3/ChatGPT and DALL-E 2).

if your birth year starts with 2, I can see why you might think that

Not necessarily. DeepSeek will probably only threaten the API usage of OpenAI, which could also be banned in the US if it's too sucessful. API usage is not a main revenue for OpenAI (it is for Anthropic last time I checked). The main competitor for R1 is o1, which isn't gnerally available yet.

DeepSeek is an open source model. You can download it and run it locally on your laptop already.

So any OpenAI user ( or competitor even) could take it and run a hosted model. You can even tweak the weights if you wanted to.

Why pay for OpenAI access when you can just run your own and save the money?

LM Studio version is here: https://lmstudio.ai/model/deepseek-r1-llama-8b

The one your laptop can run does not rival what OpenAI offers for money. Still, the issue is not whether third party can run it, it's just the OpenAI seems not putting API as their main product.

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