2025 Daily Surface Air Temperature Looking Bad | Hacker News Reader

2025 Daily Surface Air Temperature Looking Bad

climatereanalyzer.org

The last two years of climate data from sources all over the world has been completely out of distribution. Recently scientists have struggled to understand it because it's worse than the worst predicted trendlines in their models.

I'm far from an expert. However I wonder if this is partially tied to under estimates in methane leaks in natural gas delivery and CO2 connected to concrete construction

I am not an expert either. However I cannot imagine that those sources come close to the volume of methane leaked from clathrates.

Hammershaft's comment is disturbing to me, as that is how the lines in the graph appear to me as well.

What about LNG?

https://thelensnola.org/2023/07/31/lng-export-terminals-belc...

There was also the thing about low sulfur shipping causing a spike in temps? No idea if that’s potentially related or not.

It could have caused a small spike but not anywhere near the levels seen. It was momentarily an interesting idea.

I believe it is positive feedback loop tipping points being reached (thawing permafrost, for example), which is accelerating change beyond was was previously modeled.

https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

Additional citation:

A third of the Arctic’s vast carbon sink now a source of emissions, study reveals - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jan/21/third-of...

Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5

Long term warming trend. We might get up to the previous peak at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene 125,000 years ago before it's all over.

Short term (within a century) warming trend directly caused by additional atmospheric insulation (CO2) added by human activity.

We've already reached and are now starting to exceed:

  The global average temperature during the Last Interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, was about 0.5–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like on a short-term scale. It's hard to rule out that it might not have been very much like today. And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s, which is hard to establish (actually counter-indicated).

> And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s

It's predicated on thermodynamics, heat equations, and the fact that CO2 is an insulator and that CO2 in the atmosphere has measurably increased as a direct result of fossil fuel extraction.

eg: Manabe, Wetherald 1967.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/24/3/1520-04...

Throughout the vast majority of geological history, CO2 has been a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, of global temperature. CO2 was 1600ppm back in the Eocene. High CO2 was caused by the high temperature, not the other way around. Thermodynamics and heat equations and so on all worked the same way in the Eocene as they do today, and nobody was extracting fossil fuels.

> Throughout the vast majority of geological history, CO2 has been a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator,

This directly contradicts another opinion upthread:

> The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like

although that was from the person that incorrectly, although confidently, claimed:

> the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s

They do seem confused about multiple causes, effects, etc.

You dropped "on a short-term scale" when quoting me.

The contradiction that you see escapes me. Please explain how the fact that our proxies don't allow us to talk about decade- or century-level temperature movements 50 million years ago contradicts the statement CO2 is a lagging indicator of temperature change through most of the geologic record.

Also, you say I am confused about something. Perhaps. Say in precise language what you think that is, and I will try to clear things up.

Haven't you heard? The new president will fix this too! No more of these suspicious graphs!

In all seriousness, wish there was more happening to fix this.

He's got a whole box of Sharpies.

and, by the Commutative Law of Relatives he's at least as much of a stable genius as his uncle who was a great professor for, I believe, 40 years at MIT.

I feel really bad for kids. If every year the temperatures are breaking records, that's not a pretty world to live in.

It looks like the northern hemisphere is the outlier and southern, tropics, artic and antarctic are, well not cold (relatively), but not over the long term trend.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com