BTW the ASML technology is based in part on research that was funded by the USA; which is why the USA has a say in who gets it.
Even if China could capture the ASML tooling intact it would only be useful for some reverse engineering. Actual production requires both skilled local employees and ongoing support from headquarters back in the Netherlands.
First, Taiwan sees HK and knows what's up. You don't sleep next to an elephant all your life and not know when they will roll over.
Second, even if Taiwan didn't rig for sabotage AND (big AND) just straight up surrendered (it won't); People will slowly leave, turn over will happen, machines will age out, the right investments will not be made, etc. Taiwan may not shatter (immediately), but it will rust and dull. Look at HK and I believe that is the BEST case scenario for the China.
For Taiwan, semi-conductors represent a poison pill/porcupine defense. But that is all that is, defense/poison. It won't stop China if the leaders decide that it would just eat the consequences. I hope Taiwan can find a creative solution to their woes.
For China, they have to realize they are on a timer. They can't keep "turning off money machines", or "crushing jewels". At some point they are going to run out of "resources" to extract and I hope they figure out how to work with countries in their region instead of antagonizing them. Why? because 1+ billion people will suffer if they don't figure it out.
>clearly China is capable of catching up with ASML’s tooling
The only thing clear to me is precisely the opposite. Nobody has been able to catch up with ASML, including China. If China is capable of catching up on their own (without espionage), why would Taiwan even matter? Why would export controls on ASML tooling even matter?
They matter because ASML and TSMC are companies built on secret know-how that others can’t replicate. Do we really need to explain on HN that companies are built on secrets?
The CCP has fully subscribed to irredentism and it has popular support in the mainland. Taiwan will never not matter.
But otherwise I agree with the rest of your argument.
Plenty of countries, particularly those in an economic slump, have popular support for stupid wars. That changes quickly when the war is started and the costs come home.
This is the example Xi, and those around him, would be looking to.
Correct. It's for domestic consumption. By the time leadership is weak enough to be compelled into playing it out, chances are it won't make military sense.
Which will render the country a technological back-water and affect their ability to build the advanced systems needed to compete in a war for Taiwan.
And given that China would be fighting against a war against West + Japan + South Korea with support from at least a few ASEAN countries they would need to be at the top of their game to have a chance of taking Taiwan.
It's a ban on anything less than 7nm. So every year the discrepancy accumulates.
And having compute superiority can make a big difference if it ends up being a war largely conducted by competing AIs.