Robots might be 1000x harder than superintelligence
maxrumpf.com
maxrumpf.com
> Moravec's paradox is the observation in the fields of artificial intelligence and robotics that, contrary to traditional assumptions, reasoning requires very little computation, but sensorimotor and perception skills require enormous computational resources. The principle was articulated in the 1980s by Hans Moravec, Rodney Brooks, Marvin Minsky, and others. Moravec wrote in 1988: "it is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility".
Knowledge work is made up (literally). It's all tasks that humans have created for themselves. We invented the maths, the programming languages, the spreadsheet software, the government form – everything.
The real world is very much not made up (especially if you're nonreligious). Most of the tasks are sampled from a distribution we did not invent and that means they might be much, much harder.
I think supersonic airliners might even be thinking too small. If we scaled speed like we did transistors, then if an Intel 4004 is like walking, an M2 Max would be like going 0.28c (c = speed of light)!