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Its about the type of person now required to write software. You dont need some ultra math brain autist to write code if the LLM can do it with some human assistance from someone of much less ability. Coding may see more demand, but the skill set itself sees a reduction in the base quality bar required by the engineers, dropping wages and changing the profession. Ofcourse there are exceptions, but not for most businesses

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Yes, the profession is going to change, as it always has but this is still bad economics. Wages don't fall when productivity increases, or otherwise you'd be poorer every year since the industrial revolution. When software developers become more productive their value goes up, not down. A web or game developer in 2015 was not a "ultra math brain autist" compared to a 1980s CS whiz kid writing video games in assembly, but financially better off. Software developers, like everyone else, aren't paid for their calculus skills, they're paid for the market value of their output, entirely independent of how much brainy skills that requires.

When Guido and Mats invented Python and Ruby, or you get a really fancy debugger, did you think the wage apocalypse is upon us because you got a more productive tool and more people can write software?

Engineers are paid for their scarcity, and AI is going to make them much less scarce for line of business software

Actually, in the long run, it's likely to make good engineers a lot more scarce.

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