US Reliance on Saudi Oil Is Nearing Its Endgame

bloomberg.com

5 points·this_weekend··6 comments

That's great news. How are we doing with imports from other autocratic regimes? The world has hit peak-Internal Combustion Engine sales in 2017. How close are we to peak oil demand?

https://archive.is/p2hl1

Supposedly China has already reached peak oil due to their rapid uptake of EVs, but hard to tell globally as some parts of the world are not adopting EVs as quickly as others.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/10/11/chinas-oil-gas-giant-si...

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-Chinas-Demand-for-O...

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/CNPC-Chin...

https://newatlas.com/energy/sinopec-china-gasoline-peaked/

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&t=6

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-energy-source-bar

I've heard assessments like "probably October 24", which may be true or false, but the fact that they are being made says that the peak is roughly now. Who cares about exactly when?

I care more about how steep the curve downwards will be how soon.

Function of rate of change of electric mobility product deployment rate, how fast the hockey stick gets pulled towards vertical for e-bikes, EVs, trucks, busses, etc.

https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-veh...

https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-pu...

GP asked about peak oil demand. Remember that that depends on much more than ICE cars. Very roughly speaking there are four big components to oil demand: furnaces and similar, oil/gas-based electricity plants, ICEs including cars, and finally using hydrocarbon molecules to produce other materials.

If you squint you can ignore everything else and get a good approximation. But ignoring everything other than cars is too incomplete.

https://archive.is/xZSjo

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